Did Mike Read the Mind of ECB Officials to Predict Changes in Interest Rate Estimates?

Even though we do not focus on interest rate forecasts, we have nonetheless established a very impressive track record forecasting short-term interest rate moves by the Fed, as discusse here and here.

Investors have been anxiously waiting for the time when the ECB makes its first hike to short-term interest rates in years. For more than one year now the ECB had targeted June 2019 as the period when it would begin boosting interest rates.   

Towards the end of 2018, we realized the ECB would be forced to push its target date forward once again as a result of the trend of economic weakness in the European region, along with additional factors. 

Although we do not specifically focus on or track interest rates on a regular basis, we were confident the ECB would not be able to reach its June 2019 target for raising rates. Because we do not discuss EU interest rates each month, we dd not mention anything in regards to this conclusion which we had made in December 2018 until March 4 in the Opening Statement of the CCPM Forecaster (it's possible we did mention it in one of the video sessions held in December through February).

Three days after we stated that the ECB would be unlikely to raise rates at all in 2019, the ECB announced this same conclusion on March 7.