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A forensic archive of two decades of correct forecasts, correct mechanisms, correct timing, correct market calls, and correct investment guidance from Mike Stathis.

(2006–2025)

SECTION I — THE CRISIS CALLS (2006–2008)

(Wins #1–20)

Predicted the largest real estate bubble in U.S. history (AFA, 2006).
— Correct, unique in scale and structure.
Identified mortgage fraud as the primary crisis catalyst.
— No other major analyst called this in 2006.
Explained how securitization would fail, mechanically.
— Precisely what triggered the collapse.
Correctly forecast CDO contamination and derivative failure.
— Major ratings agencies missed this.
Predicted ratings agency conflicts as systemic risk.
— Exactly what investigations showed.
Forecast GSE collapse (Fannie & Freddie) in 2006.
— The only public analyst to do so.
Mapped the bank-failure cascade (AFA Ch. 12).
— Happened exactly as described.
Identified mortgage insurers as catastrophic losses.
— 2007–2009: They imploded.
Warned about homebuilder collapses with exact timing window.
— CIRB (2007) → homebuilders cratered.
Forecast a deep recession, not “soft landing.”
— Perfect.
Predicted consumer credit deterioration pre-2008.
— Correct.
Predicted mass job losses tied to credit contraction.
— Happened exactly as described.
Forecast global contagion through structured finance.
— Spot on.
Identified shadow-banking vulnerabilities early.
— Years before mainstream.
Predicted state & municipal budget crises tied to tax collapse.
— Correct, 2009–2012.
Correctly forecast equity-market collapse from real-estate fallout.
— Pre-2008.
Identified systemic mispricing of risk as market foundation.
— Exactly what post-crisis autopsies concluded.
Warned that credit markets would freeze.
— 2008: froze exactly as described.
Forecast bank nationalization/bailouts would happen.
— TARP & conservatorships.
Identified counterparty risk as the Achilles heel.
— Correct.

SECTION II — MARKET CALLS DURING THE CRISIS

(Wins #21–30)

2008: Told investors bottom was NOT in yet; market had further to fall.
— Correct.
Predicted Dow ~6,500 as crisis target.
— Hit within margin.
Warned that bank stocks were not yet investable in early 2008.
— Saved investors from catastrophic losses.
Identified GM & GE as future disasters.
— Both collapsed.
Predicted extreme oil crash conditions.
— 2008 oil collapse follows.
Identified “second-leg collapse” window pre-2009 bottom.
— Correct.
Told investors to prepare for historic buying opportunities in certain sectors.
— Pharma, travel, staples → massive gains.
Mapped sector rotation that would follow collapse.
— Accurate.
Predicted credit-spread blowouts.
— Happened on schedule.
Forecast corporate-bond stress as recession deepened.
— Precisely correct.

SECTION III — THE 2009 BOTTOM & IMMEDIATE AFTERMATH

(Wins #31–40)

Called the 2009 bottom, on record, against public sentiment.
— The rarest and hardest call in markets.
Forecast massive S&P recovery post-bottom.
— Correct.
Predicted tech revival as credit stabilized.
— Began 2009–2010.
Identified financials as post-crisis laggards but not terminal.
— Correct.
Forecast EM equity resurgence post-2009.
— Accurate.
Predicted consumer-driven rebound via pent-up demand.
— Happened.
Identified precious metals as short-to-medium-term beneficiaries.
— Correct cycle call.
Called USD strength, not collapse, after crisis.
— Completely correct and opposite to doom narratives.
Predicted inflation would not explode despite QE.
— Completely accurate for a decade.
Forecast multi-year bull market.
— One of longest bull markets in history.

SECTION IV — POST-CRISIS WIN STREAK (2010–2015)

(Wins #41–60)

Debunked hyperinflation narratives early.
— 100% correct.
Predicted U.S. manufacturing rebound in select niches.
— Happened.
Forecast labor-market improvement 2010–2014.
— Correct.
Identified weak EM currencies ahead of taper.
— Correct.
Correctly called China’s credit expansion risks (pre-2013).
— Mainstream picked up years later.
Predicted global commodities slump from oversupply.
— 2013–2015 commodity crash.
Identified Europe’s structural stagnation early.
— Correct.
Forecast oil supercycle end before 2014 collapse.
— Major win.
Predicted U.S. tech sector dominance for decade.
— Perfect.
Called biotech surge early.
— Huge returns.
Predicted end of gold’s 2011–2012 bull run.
— Completely correct.
Called precious metals stagnation cycle 2013–2015.
— Correct.
Predicted EM debt problems due to USD strength.
— Correct.
Identified Japan’s structural stagnation reforms impact.
— Correct.
Called 2010–2012 volatility cycles accurately.
— Documented.
Predicted Treasury strength, not collapse.
— Opposite Schiff, correct.
Identified post-crisis yield-hunting effects early.
— Correct.
Predicted corporate buyback era and impact.
— Correct.
Forecast housing market slow recovery, not boom.
— Correct.
Predicted student-loan bubble expansion.
— Correct.

SECTION V — ADVANCED FORECAST WINS (2015–2020)

(Wins #61–75)

Identified secular stagnation correctly.
— Ahead of academics.
Predicted oil crash 2015.
— Correct.
Forecast Fed tightening impact on EM currencies.
— Accurate.
Correctly predicted continued USD dominance.
— Correct.
Identified tech giants’ entrenchment ahead of FAANG era.
— Perfect.
Predicted China’s property-credit fragility.
— Pre-2021 collapse.
Correctly forecast U.S. consumer resilience 2015–2019.
— Accurate.
Called retail sector bifurcation (Amazon vs. weak retailers).
— Correct.
Predicted rise of telemedicine.
— Pre-COVID.
Identified aging-demographic plays (pharma, medtech).
— Large gains.
Predicted tech-led bull continuation 2017–2019.
— Correct.
Identified “everything bubble” narratives as false.
— Completely correct.
Predicted corporate debt buildup risks.
— Correct.
Forecast volatility spike 2018.
— Accurate.
Identified crypto’s structural persistence, not extinction.
— Opposite of doom narratives; correct.

SECTION VI — COVID-ERA GRAND SLAM (2020–2023)

(Wins #76–90)

Predicted COVID crash bottom nearly to the week.
— One of his rarest, strongest calls.
Forecast fastest recovery in history.
— 100% correct.
Identified tech hyperboom coming out of COVID.
— Correct.
Predicted inflation would rise but not runaway.
— Accurate.
Identified supply-chain bottlenecks before mainstream.
— Correct.
Predicted overreaction in recession calls.
— Correct.
Forecast household-balance-sheet strength.
— Accurate.
Identified travel & leisure rebound.
— Huge gains.
Predicted energy resurgence 2021–2022.
— Correct.
Identified EV/green-tech speculative bubble early.
— Correct.
Forecast 2021–22 tech bubble forming.
— Timestamped.
Predicted 2022 tech collapse.
— Perfect.
Identified market overreaction mid-2022.
— Correct.
Predicted 2023 recovery inflection.
— Exactly right.
Correctly forecast AI-led rebound.
— One of few analysts to do so.

SECTION VII — LONG-TERM FORECAST RECORD (2006–2025)

(Wins #91–100)

Predicted income/wealth disparity explosion from 2006 onward.
— Exactly what happened.
Forecast healthcare-cost crisis and its investment implications.
— Correct.
Identified retirement insecurity as structural risk.
— U.S. retirement crisis confirms.
Predicted gig economy growth before term existed.
— Correct.
Forecast pension-fund instability (Illinois, NJ).
— Accurate.
Predicted longevity economy growth.
— Correct.
Forecast media decline & misinformation boom.
— Correct.
Predicted political polarization intensification.
— Correct.
Warned of permanent doom-industry misinformation post-2008.
— He was right.
Correctly predicted decline of U.S. institutional trust, driving investor herding.
— A defining feature of the 2010s–2020s.