JEWISH MAFIA

When we refer to the Jewish mafia, we are not pointing to religion.  We deem religion in this discussion largely as a contributory although not necessary variable to qualify a Jewish individual as a member of the Jewish mafia. Note that we do not believe practice of Judaism to be a significant factor to qualify one to be a member of the Jewish mafia because the aspects of tribalism that come from Judaism are infused into Jewish youths. As adults many choose to not practice Judaism but all Jews maintain an intense sense of tribalism. When we refer to the Jewish mafia we are referring to the unique form of tribalism practiced by Jewish people. This tribalism is the most extreme in the world and is rooted in both the Jewish culture and Judaism.  

It's important to understand that most Jewish people actually do not practice Judaism. A large percentage of Jewish individuals are either agnostic or atheists, while a significant portion practices Christianity. We have no religious interests whatsoever other than elements that intersect with the cultural aspects of those who practice a given religion. 

We hold the view that all religions were created as a means to control large populations. Thus, we are not concerned with variations of different religions. 

So what is the Jewish mafia? The Jewish mafia primarily comprises Jewish individuals, some of which are religious while others are not. We believe the main objective of the Jewish mafia is to enrich the lives of Jews by any means necessary. In addition to a wide range of criminal activities, the Jewish mafia has been able to create, remove and alter laws that enable them to game the system in a way that makes it difficult for their criminal activities to be discovered. At the same time, the Jewish mafia controls the judicial and legal system of the west enabling tribe members to escape prosecution. Finally, the Jewish mafia invariably behaves in a highly discriminatory manner against all gentiles in matters of business, commerce and finance in order to benefit their own interests as well as that of Jewish people.

A comprehensive definition of the Jewish mafia is beyond the scope of this discussion but we will provide a very brief overview. If a Jewish individual holds a prominent position in an industry that is dominated by the Jewish mafia we consider such individuals as members of the Jewish mafia. The media is a good example of this. In this instance we include only those individuals who work as producers, editors, directors and talking heads of the media.  

However, there are some gentiles that we include as members of the Jewish mafia. In all cases, the gentiles included in the Jewish mafia are very influential and wealthy and are intermingled with Jewish interests through business and finance. Money rules these gentiles which is why they fail to see how they are damaging humanity, or else do not care that their greedy endeavors have created many grave consequences for the world.  Although the most obvious qualification a Jew must possess to be a member of the Jewish mafia is a high status in business, finance, politics or high standing in any other field of influence, we consider any Jewish individual who serves as an apologist or denialist of the facts surrounding the actions and consequences of the Jewish mafia to also be a member. 

"There are two sorts of wealth-getting, as I have said; one is a part of household management, the other is retail trade: the former necessary and honorable, while that which consists in exchange is justly censured; for it is unnatural, and a mode by which men gain from one another. The most hated sort, and with the greatest reason, is usury, which makes a gain out of money itself, and not from the natural object of it. For money was intended to be used in exchange, but not to increase at interest. And this term interest, which means the birth of money from money, is applied to the breeding of money because the offspring resembles the parent. Wherefore of modes of getting wealth this is the most unnatural."

- Politics, Aristotle, 350 B.C.

"The Jew alone regards his race as superior to humanity, and looks forward not to its ultimate union with other races, but to its triumph over them all and to its final ascendancy under the leadership of a tribal Messiah."

- Goldwin Smith, The Jewish Question, October 1881

“I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated governments in the civilized world. No longer a government by free opinion, no longer a government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men.”

- President Woodrow Wilson 1916

“We are grateful to the Washington Post, The New York Times, Time Magazine and other great publications whose directors have attended our meetings and respected their promises of discretion for almost forty years. It would have been impossible for us to develop our plan for the world if we had been subjected to the lights of publicity during those years. But, the world is now more sophisticated and prepared to march towards a world government. The supranational sovereignty of an intellectual elite and world bankers is surely preferable to the national auto-determination practiced in past centuries.”

- David Rockefeller, Baden-Baden, Germany 1991

“It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.”

- Henry Ford 

“The real truth of the matter is, as you and I know, that a financial element in the larger centers has owned the Government ever since the days of Andrew Jackson.”

- Franklin D. Roosevelt, letter to Col. House, November 21, l933

“One of the least understood strategies of the world revolution now moving rapidly toward its goal is the use of mind control as a major means of obtaining the consent of the people who will be subjects of the New World Order.”

- The National Educator, K.M. Heaton

"We Jews, we, the destroyers, will remain the destroyers for ever. Nothing that you will do will meet our needs and demands. We will for ever destroy because we need a world of our own, a God-world, which it is not in your nature to build."

- Maurice Samuels, You Gentiles, 1924

“We are on the verge of a global transformation. All we need is the right major crisis and the nations will accept the New World Order.”

- David Rockefeller 

“Today, America would be outraged if U.N. troops entered Los Angeles to restore order. Tomorrow they will be grateful! This is especially true if they were told that there were an outside threat from beyond, whether real or promulgated, that threatened our very existence. It is then that all peoples of the world will plead to deliver them from this evil. The one thing every man fears is the unknown. When presented with this scenario, individual rights will be willingly relinquished for the guarantee of their well-being granted to them by the World Government.”

- Dr. Henry Kissinger, Bilderberger Conference, Evians, France, 1991

At every opportunity Jewish shills try to mask the Jewish mafia by spreading disinfo and distractions such as "the Jesuits are behind the New World Order." Of course this is comical.

I'm going to reveal something I've known for many years. The Catholic church has been powerless for several decades. This is a fact. The final blow to the Catholic church occurred when molestation lawsuits began to surface about three decades ago. The church has been in severe financial trouble since then. This is in fact how the Jewish mafia seized the final arm of control over the church, using its banks to finance the enormous financial awards for thousands of cases of sexual deviancy from Catholic priests. 

But let's not forget that the world was a much different place when the Catholic Church actually had real power. Back then there were no banks or mass media. Remember that the Catholic Church was against Usury. But because the Catholic church was powerful prior to the emergence of banks and mass media, it is a well-known fact that the church had already been infiltrated by Jews.  They are referred to as marano Jews.  

 











How to Think Clearly

"Never argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience." –Mark Twain

If you want to begin to understand and appreciate the work of Mike Stathis, from his market forecasts and securities analysis to his political and economic analysis, you will first need to learn how to think clearly. For many, this will be a cleansing process that could take quite a long time to complete depending on each individual.

The best way to begin to clear your mind is to first move forward with this series of steps:

1. GET RID OF YOUR TV SET (at least cancel your cable)

2. REFUSE TO USE YOUR PHONE TO TEXT

3. DO NOT USE A "SMART PHONE" (or at least do not use your phone to access the internet)

4. STAY AWAY FROM SOCIAL MEDIA 

The cleansing process will take time but you can hasten the process by being proactive in exercising your mind.

You should also be aware of a very common behavior exhibited by humans who have been exposed to the various aspects of modern society. This behavior occurs when an individual overestimates his abilities and knowledge, while underestimating his weaknesses and lack of understanding. This behavior has been coined the "Dunning-Kruger Effect" after to sociologists who described it in a research publication. See here.

Many people today think they are virtual experts on every topic they regard with relevance. The reason for this illusory behavior is because these individuals typically allow themselves to become brainwashed by various media outlets. The more information these individuals obtain on these topics from the media, the more qualified they feel they are in these subjects, without realizing that the media is not a valid source with which to use for understanding something. The media always has bias and can never be relied on to represent the full truth.

A perfect example of the Dunning-Kruger Effect can be seen with many individuals who listen to talk radio shows. These shows are politically biased and consist of individuals who resemble used car salesmen more than intellectuals. These talking heads brainwash their audience with cherry-picked facts, misstatements and lies regarding relevant issues such as healthcare, immigration, Social Security, Medicaid, economics, science, and so forth. They also select guests for interview based on the agendas they wish to fulfill with their advertisers.

Once their audience has been indoctrinated by these propagandists, they feel qualified to discuss these topics on the same level as a real authority, without realizing that they obtained their understanding from individuals who are employed as professional liars and manipulators by the media.  Another good example of the Dunning-Kruger Effect can be seen upon examination of political pundits, stock market and economic analysts on TV.  They talk a good game because they are professional speakers. But once you examine their track record, it is clear that these individuals are largely wrong, but they have developed an inflated sense of expertise and knowledge on topics for which they continuously demonstrate their incompetence.

One of the most insightful analogies created to explain how things are often not what you see was Plato's Allegory of the Cave, from Book 7 of the Republic.

We highly recommend that you study this masterpiece in great detail so that you are better able to use logic and reason.Although we recommend you read and study The Allegory of the Cave, you can get a flavor for its meaning by watching the following video. 

If you can learn how to think like a philosopher, specifically one of the great ancient Greek philosophers, it is highly unlikely that you will ever be fooled by con artists like those who make ridiculous and unfounded claims in order to pump gold and silver, the typical get-rich-quick or multi-level marketing (MLM) crowd.





STOP Being Taken

If you want to do well as an investor then you must first understand how the various forces are all seeking to deceive and steal from you.  Most people understand that Wall Street is looking to take their money, but do they really understand the means why which they achieve their objectives?  Once you understand the various tricks and scams practiced by Wall Street you will be better able to avoid being taken. 

Perhaps an even greater threat to investors is the financial media. The single most important thing all investors must do if they want to hope to become successful investors is to stay clear of all media. The various resources found within this website address these two issues and much more.  You can have access to the best investment research in the world. But without an adequate understanding of how the parasites operate you will ultimately fail as an investor. 

The Jewish mafia runs both Wall Street and the media. This cabal also runs many other industries. It is important to understand how this mob operates so that you can beat them at their own game. We devote a great deal of time and energy towards exposing the Jewish mafia in order to position investors with a higher success rate in achieving their investment goals.

Always remember the following quotes as they apply to the various charlatans positioned by the media as experts and business leaders.   

“Beware of false prophets, which come to you in sheep's clothing, but inwardly they are ravening wolves.”

King James Bible - Matthew 7:15

"It's easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled." –Mark Twain

All Viewpoints Are Not Created Equal Just because something is published in print, online or aired in the broadcast media does not make it accurate.  In fact, more often than not the larger the audience, the more likely the content is either inaccurate or slanted. The next time you read something about economics or investments, you should ask two main questions in order to assess the credibility of the source. Is the source biased in any way?   That is, do they have any agendas which would provide any type of benefit accounting for their views? Most individuals either sell ads on their site or are dealers of precious metals or securities. That means their views are biased and cannot be relied upon.

The following is one of the first questions you should ask before giving any creedance to those who are positioned as experts. 

Is your source is credible?  

Most people associate credibility with name-recognition. But more often than not, name-recognition serves as a predictor of bias if not lack of credibility because the more a name is recognized, the more the individual has been plastered in the media. And every intelligent person knows that individuals who have been provided with media exposure because they are either naive or clueless. The media positions these types of individuals as “credible experts” in order to please its financial sponsors; Wall Street. 

Instead of name-recognition or media celebrity status, you must determine whether your source has relevant experience on Wall Street as opposed to being self-taught. But this is just a basic hurdle that in itself by no means ensures the source is competent or credible. More important, always examine the track record of your source in depth, looking for accuracy and specific forecasts rather than open-ended statements. You must also look for timing since a broken clock is always right once a day.  Finally, make sure they do not cherry-pick their best calls. Always examine their entire track record. 

The above question requires only slight modification for use in determining the credibility of sources that discuss other topics, such as politics, healthcare, etc.We have compiled the most extensive publication exposing hundreds of con men pertaining to the financial publishing and securities industry, although we also cover numerous con men in the media and other front groups since they are all associated in some way with each other. There is perhaps no one else in the world capable of shedding the full light on these con men other than Mike Stathis. Mike has been studying the indistry for well over a decade. Alhough he has published numerous articles and videos addressing this dark side of the industry, the entire collection can be found in our ENCYCLOPEDIA of Bozos, Hacks, Snake Oil Salesmen and Faux Heroes


At AVA Investment Analytics, we don't try to pump gold, silver or equities like many others you see because we are not promoters or marketers. And we do not receive any compensation whatsoever (including from ads) from our content. We provide individual investors, financial advisers, analysts and fund managers with world-class research, education and unique insight.







Media Lies

If you listen to the media, most likely it is costing you hundreds of thousands of dollars in lost money at minimum over the course of your lifetime. The deceit, lies and useless guidance from the financial media certainly is a large contributor of these losses to the sheep you pay attention.

But a good deal of lost wealth comes in the form of excessive consumerism which the media seeks to impose on its audience. You aren’t going to know that you’re being brainwashed or that you have lost $1 million or $2 million over your life time due to the media, but I can guarantee you that with rare exception this is the reality for those who are naïve enough to waste time on the media.

It gets worse. By listening to the media, you are likely to also suffer ill health effects through the lack of timely coverage of toxic prescription drugs or through the ridiculous medical shows, all of which are supportive of the medical-industrial complex.

And if you seek out the so-called "alternative media" you might make the mistake of relying on con men like Kevin Trudeau or Alex Jones. This could be a deadly decision. As bad as traditional media is, the so-called "alternative media" is even worse.

 

Why Does the Media Air Liars and Con Men?

The goal of the media is NOT to serve its audience because the audience does NOT pay the bills.

The goal of the media is to please its sponsors, or the companies that spend huge dollars buying ads, and in order for companies to justify these expenses, they need the media to represent their cause. The media does this by airing idiots and con men who mislead and confuse their audience.

By engaging in "journalistic fraud," the media steers its audience into the arms of its advertisers because the audience is now misled and confused, so in the case of the financial media, it seeks the assistance of Wall Street brokerage firms, mutual funds, insurance companies, precious metals dealers. This is why advertisers pay big money to be promoted in the financial media.

We see the same thing on a more obvious note in the so-called "alternative media," which is really a remanufactured version of the so-called "mainstream media." Do not be fooled. There is no such thing as the "alternative media." 

In order to be considered "media" you must have content that has widespread channels of distribution. Thus, all "media" is widely distributed and the same powers that control the distribution of the so-called "mainstream media" also control the distribution of the so-called "alternative media."

The claim that there is an "alternative media" is merely a sales pitch designed to capture the audience that has since given up on the "mainstream media."  The tactic is a very common one used by con men.

The same tactic is used by Washington to convince naive voters that there are meaningful differences between the nation's two political parties. In reality, both parties are essentially the same when it comes to issues that matter most (trade policy, healthcare and war). Anyone who tells you anything different simply isn't thinking straight.

On this site, we expose the lies and the liars in the media. We discuss and reveal the motives and track record of the media’s hand-selected charlatans with a focus on the financial media.  




 

Why Stathis Was Banned

No one has generated a more accurate track record in the investment markets over the past several years than Mike Stathis. Yet, the financial media wants nothing to do with Stathis.  This has been the case from day one when he was black-balled by the publishing industry after having written his landmark 2006 book, America's Financial Apocalypse. From that point on, he was black-balled throughout all so-called mainstream media and then even the so-called alternative media. 

With very rare exception, you aren't even going to hear him on the radio being interviewed.

You aren't going to see him mentioned on any websites either.

You won't read or hear of his remarkable track record unless you read about it on this website or read his books.

You should be wondering why this might be. Some of you already know the answer.

The media has banned Mike Stathis because the trick is to air clowns so that the audience will be steered into the hands of the media's financial sponsors - Wall Street and gold dealers.

And as for the radio shows and websites that either don't know about Stathis or don't care to hear what he has to say, the fact is that they are so stupid that they assume those who are plastered in the media are credible. And since they haven't seen or heard Stathis in the media, even if they come across him, they automatically assume he's a nobody in the investment world simply because he has no media exposure.

Well, if media exposure was a testament to knowledge, credibility and excellent track records, Peter Schiff's clients would be a lot happier when they looked at their account balance.

Others only care about pitching what’s deemed as the “hot” topic because this sells ads in terms of more site visits or reads. This is why you come across so many websites based on doom and conspiratorial horse shit run by con artists looking to cash in on ads.

We have donated countless hours and huge sums of money towards the pursuit of exposing the con men, lies and fraud. We continue this mission but we cannot continue it forever without your assistance.

We have been banned by virtually every media platform in the U.S and every website (mainly because we expose the truth about gold and silver).

We have been banned from use of email marketing providers.

The fact is that the Jewish Mafia has declared war on us because we have exposed the realities of the U.S. government, Wall Street and corporate America.

Note that we only began discussing the role of Jews in criminality by 2009, three years AFTER we had been black-listed by the media, so no one can say that our criticism of the Jewish Mafia has led to being black-listed, not that it would even be acceptable.

You can talk about the Italian Mafia, and Jewish Hollywood can make 100s of movies about it...

BUT YOU CANNOT TALK ABOUT THE JEWISH MAFIA.

However, it's critical to note that the widespread ban on Mr. Stathis began well before he so much as mentioned the Jewish mafia or even Jewish control of any kind. It was in fact his ban that led him to realize precisely what was going on. You see, if you dare to expose Jewish control or anything under Jewish control, you will be black-balled by all media so the masses will never hear the truth. Because Mr. Stathis exposed so much in his 2006 book America's Financial Apocalypse, he was banned. He was banned for writing about the following topics in detail: political correctness, illegal immigration, affirmative action, as well as the economic realities behind America's disastrous healthcare system, the destructive impact of free trade, and many other topics in addition to having exposed the mortgage derivatives scam that would end of catalyzing the worst global crisis in history. 

We rely on you to help spread the word about us. Just remember this. We don’t have to do what we are doing.

We could do as everyone else and focus on making money. We are doing sacrificing everything because in this day and age, unfortunately, the truth is revolutionary. It is also critical in order to prevent the complete enslavement of world citizenry. 

  

Rules to Remember

Those With Significant Exposure Are NOT on Your Side.  No one who has significant exposure can be trusted because those who are responsible for permitting such exposure have allowed it for a very good reason, and that reason does not serve your best interests. In short, everyone who has significant exposure has either been bought off by those seeking to distort reality, or else has bought off those who are providing the exposure for the purpose of selling snake oil.  

Con Artists Like to Form Syndicates. Before the internet was born con artists were largely on their own. But once the internet popped up, con artists realized that digital connectivity could amplify their reach, mind control and thus money in their pockets by forming alliances with other con artists. Teaming up with other con artists leads to a significantly greater volume of content such that the suckers are more likely to remain within the web of deceit as well as being more convinced that their favorite con artist is legit. 

Whenever you wish to know whether someone can be trusted, always remember this golden rule..."a man is judged by the company he keeps." This is a very important rule to remember because con men almost always belong to the same network.  You will see the same con artists referencing each other, on blog rolls and so forth.

There's NO Free Lunch.  Whenever something is marketed as being "free" you can bet the item or service is either useless or else the ultimate price you will pay will be much greater than if you had paid money for it in the beginning. Free emails, free social media use, free content is all complete garbage designed to obtain your data and sell it to digital marketing firms. From there you will be brainwashed with cleverly designed ads, you will be monitored and your identity wil eventually be stolen.  Even Free Trade has been a complete scam. 

Beware of Manipulation Using Word Games. When manipulators want to get the masses to side with their propaganda and ditch more legitimate alternatives they often select psychologically relevant labels to indicate positive or negative impressions. For instance, the financial parasites running America's medical-industrial complex have designated the term "socialized medicine" to replace the original, more accurate term, "universal healthcare" in order to sway the masses from so much as even investigating universal healthcare as the best system of medical care. When Wall Street wanted to convince the American people to go along with NAFTA, they used the term "free trade" to describe the current system of trade which has devastated the U.S. labor force. In reality, free trade is unfair trade and only benefits the wealthy. There are many examples of this play on words such as the "sharing economy" and so on.  

Whenever Someone Promotes Something that Offers to Empower You, It's Usually a Scam. This applies to the life coaches, self-help nonsense, libertarian pitches, FIRE movement and so forth. If it sounds too good to be true, it usually is. We DO need government. And no, you can NOT become financially independent and retire early unless you sell this con game to suckers.  

  • JEWISH MAFIA
  • How to Think Clearly
  • STOP Being Taken
  • Media Lies
  • Why Stathis Was Banned
  • Rules to Remember
  • X close
  • The World's Leading Investment Mind Has Been   BANNED BY ALL MEDIA

  • All Media is Run by Jewish Criminals Who Censor Gentile Experts While Promoting Jewish Con Artists.

  • Mike Stathis Has Become the Most Highly Banned Financial Expert in U.S. History

  • The Media Doesn't Want You to Know the Truth.   

    And They Don't Want to Help You. 

  • The Media's Goal is to Promote Clowns as Experts.  The Media Works With Wall Street to Rip You Off.

  • AVA Investment Analytics Provides Research from the Best Investment Forecaster in the World.

  • The Best Forecasting Track Record Since 2006.       

    Check His Track Record [1][2][3][4][5][6

  • Unlike all of the "experts" you hear about, Mike Stathis is neither a perma-bear nor perma-bull.  

  • Mike Quickly Emerged as a Leading Investment Mind on Wall Street at UBS and Bear Stearns. But He Learned Everything on His Own.

  • But His Research Has Proven to be Much More Accurate than Wall Street Research. 

  • Skeptical?  Don't Rely on Clowns and Disinfo.          Check His Track Record Yourself [1][2][3][4][5][6]

  • Mike Stathis' Research is Used by Multibillion Dollar Mutual Funds, Hedge Funds & Pension Plans

  • If You Keep Listening to the Media

    You Will Keep Losing Money.

  • Mike Stathis is World's Best Source of

    Investment Research & Investor Education. 

Alerts

Market Guidance: Past, Present and Future

 

NOTE: Mike Stathis predicted the precise details of the financial crisis in his 2006 book, America's Financial Apocalypse.

The Jewish Mafia REFUSED to publish this landmark book because it exposed the widespread fraud committed by the Jewish Mafia.

Instead, the Jewish Mafia published useless marketing books written by their broken clock tribesmen (like Peter Schiff's useless book which was wrong about most things and was written a year AFTER Stathis' book).

Stathis also released a book focusing on strategies to profit from the real estate collapse in early 2007.

The Jewish media crime bosses prefer to simply ignore those who speak the truth and threaten to expose them as the best way to hide the scams from the public.

In contrast, the Jewish media crime bosses continuously promote Jewish con men and clowns who have terrible track records as a way to enrich them all while steering the audience to their sponsors, most of which are Jewish Wall Street and related firms. Figure it out folks. It's not rocket science.

 

View Mike Stathis' Track Record here, herehere, here, here, here and here.

 

 

Membership Resources

 


 

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Mike Stathis holds the best investment forecasting track record in the world since 2006.

View Mike Stathis' Track Record here, herehere, here, here, here and here.

 

 
 

 

 


So why does the media continue to BAN Stathis? 

 

Why does the media constantly air con men who have lousy track records?

These are critical questions to be answered.

You need to confront the media with these questions. 

Watch the following videos and you will learn the answer to these questions:

You Will Lose Your Ass If You Listen To The Media

 

  

 

 

  

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

Despite the strong closing bounce off the new intraday low of around 7400 reached on Friday, it’s likely the Dow has further downside. These lows may not occur for another 12-18 months. Alternatively, they could occur at any time. The timing is impossible to predict in advance. The important thing to focus on is the likelihood that the market will head lower down the road. You should adjust your investment strategy to reflect this scenario.  

As I first reported in the 2006 edition of my book America’s Financial Apocalypse, the fair value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average was around 5500 by least-squares analysis (chart below). This was a very rough estimate that could be raised to as high as 6500.

While I mentioned I would “not be shocked to see the market collapse to this level,” I felt it was unlikely. I felt a series of crashes would push the Dow down to the 10,000 level where it would trade sideways for many years, only to mount a series of devastating crashes thereafter. Thus, even I am a little surprised how badly things have deteriorated in such a short period of time.

 
 
 
Figure 16-1. Historical Chart of the DJIA Showing Periods and Fair Value
 
 
Source: America’s Financial Apocalypse: How to Profit from the Next Great Depression. Original Edition, 2006.
 
 
 

[Now you hear about the self-proclaimed experts talking about the same analysis as I discussed in 2006, as if it were timely. You know who they are - the same clowns on TV who want you to think they warned you of this mess early on, when the fact is they were bullish up until a couple of months ago. Just check their track records and you will see for yourself. They rely on the fact that most investors have short memories.

I wonder how many of these guys reference my book and why they refuse to acknowledge my forecasts. I suppose they don’t feel they need to since I’m not part of the mainstream media con artists. I know for a fact my book made it to many mutual and hedge fund managers because I was contacted by some who specifically made me promise not to disclose their praise for my book, most likely because they did not want their clients to know this catastrophe was coming.]

However, since the release of this book, I have cautioned investors many times about a collapse down to the 9000 then 8000 and finally 7800 levels. Now I am telling you to watch out below. As you will see shortly, I expect considerable short-term upside before reaching new lows.

But you should note that the Fed and Treasury’s responses to the financial crisis have assured there will be even more devastating crashes down the road, most likely just as the market appears to be headed for another strong bull run. When this will occur I cannot say. But you can bet it’s going to happen. You can’t create trillions of dollars out of thin air without harsh consequences down the road. The effects will be even worse when you hold down interest rates for a prolonged period.

With the Dow hovering around 8000, the problem is that there have been absolutely no signs of capitulation whatsoever. What that means is that the Dow could fall much lower from current levels. Even worse, we are still at the early stages of the economic fallout. Consumers have not fallen yet and hedge funds have only begun to fail. Hundreds of corporations will file for bankruptcy and thousands of banks will fail. The results of the holiday season should begin another downward turn. I invite you to check back to a couple of articles I wrote a few months ago to serve as guidance for your investment strategy. See here and here.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

So is this 5500-6500 level possible? Certainly. In fact, we know that during reversion to the mean, the stock market almost never goes exactly back exactly to the mean. Instead it overshoots. What this means is that the Dow could go lower for a period prior to gravitating around the mean. Keep in mind that as time passes, the market fair value will increase based upon the slope of the chart. 

Just from studying this basic chart alone, common sense would lead one to conclude that the stock market is headed for an additional 10 to 15-year period of poor performance. When you consider the economic data, things look much worse.

If you think this isn’t possible, you’ve most likely been watching too much TV or listening to Wall Street. Just ask Japan about this possibility.

Have a look at the 20-year performance of the Nikkei 225 below. After reaching nearly 40,000 in 1989, the Nikkei is still down by over 75%. But as you can see, it didn’t crash over a short time period. It has been in a downward trend since 1989. 

 
 
 
 
 
 

Now back to the Dow. Last Friday the Dow recently hit a critical support level (7800) and briefly broke below it (7449), although it mounted a strong rally to close just above this 7800 level. You should recall that the 7800 level was the previous intraday low made a few weeks ago. I hope you’ve been noticing these new intraday lows that rebound on close, only to be broken again a few weeks later. This has happened several times in 2008.

 
 
 
 

The good news is that the sooner and more intense the fallout, the sooner the market will recover. But you shouldn’t expect another bull market period for a long time. Notice I said bull market period as opposed to bull market. While we might experience “bull market” performance in the future, they will be followed by bear market performance. But a sustained period of strong performance is unlikely at this point. Overall, we will continue the secular bear market for many years as I predicted in my 2006 book.

Note that I like to use basic charts for a good reason. I want to illustrate that you do not need to get real fancy in order to see what’s happening. In fact, many times the fancier the chart is the more one can get distracted from the basic information.

Short-term Rally?

On the bright side of things, I am becoming increasingly optimistic of short-term upside of around 15-20% through the end of January. If this rally does materialize, you should expect it to be erased shortly thereafter once Christmas earnings are reported.

One thing is for certain. The stock market will be filled with tremendous volatility throughout 2009. And the economy is only going to get worse. There will be periods of optimism followed by deepening realities. As a result, this will continue to be a market only for the best of the best traders.

All others should consider staying out, select only safe-dividend stocks or start building positions in Chinese stocks like an ETF index (FXI).

Remember, there are going to be hundreds of hedge fund blowups and corporate bankruptcies. Many companies will slash or eliminate dividends so you need to stick with only the stocks with the best financial and business strength to ensure dividend payout.

As you might know, some of the biggest and best-known investors have been blown out in 2008, from Griffin at Citadel, the great bear himself Jeremy Grantham, and even the overrated Warren Buffett, not to mention many others (I’d mention Pickens’ blowup but I wouldn’t dare place him in this group of investors – the man is full of hot air). Keep that in mind before you decide to take on this market. If you are an investor with a horizon of 20 years you should start buying, but slowly and only after major sell-offs.

I continue to like healthcare, specifically Pfizer and a handful of HMOs like United Health and Cigna (at current levels). I’ve also recently taken a position in Alcoa and I am eye-balling Dow Chemical. As well, I am rebuilding positions in oil trusts such as Pengrowth and Harvest Energy. But these are intended to be long-term positions and I’m willing to accept further downside, so I am building my positions accordingly.

Soon I’ll be looking to enter gold and maybe silver. For those of you who missed the previous bull run in these metals, you’ll have another opportunity to catch a ride back to the top. However, I wouldn’t jump aboard until I see a strong surge, as there’s still another potential 10-15% downside. Anything more would be reason for concern and could cause a major trend reversal. If this market rally does occur, it is likely to take gold up with it. And when the next market correction occurs, this time gold might not sell off. It could soar.

I’ve cautioned investors on numerous occasions about the absolute need to trade the precious metals’ volatility. The buy-and-hold approach isn’t going to work. In fact, it’s more deadly than using it with stocks because stocks generally tend to go up over time while gold eventually reverts back to historical levels.

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

The dollar maintains its recent strength but only as a safer haven to other currencies, excluding the Yen. Once the investment community realizes the increased credit risk of the U.S. government, the dollar will reflect its true value. Most likely, this time will occur once the economic storm has bottomed and begins to show signs of improvement. Mind you this is just speculation. The only thing I am certain of is the inherent weakness of the dollar. But as we all know, assets can remain over- or undervalued for a very long time prior to correcting.

Understand once again that commodities are highly volatile. So you should take profits when you can because stocks go down much faster than they go up. And the market bottom is ahead not behind us. No matter how much I like any investment, you’d better believe I’m going to continue to take profits when I can because avoiding market risk is the top priority. Cash is king and those who have it for market crashes will be poised to do very well.  

All of that said, you shouldn’t take any of this to be investment advice because everyone has different resources, objectives and skills. And my perspectives are based on assumptions that are not likely to match your own situation. As well, regardless how right I might be today, things can change very quickly. Those who think they can profit merely by reading weekly posts during one of the most difficult markets in history are as naïve as they are soon to be broke.  

 

 

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