The following link > HERE < contains a transcript of Roubini's talk to the IMF on September 7, 2006.
Next, I'd like you to read one chapter from each of the two books I wrote so that you can more clearly understand what truly constitutes a valid prediction/forecast versus Roubini's vague hand-waving, broken clock narrative backed by no data nor in-depth analysis.
America's Financial Apocalypse, October 2006 and
Cashing in on the Real Estate Bubble, January 2007
And remember the following fact. Roubini only pointed to a recession caused by a real estate bust. He did NOT discuss the possibility/likelihood that the credit rating agencies were rubber stamping worthless mortgage debt as investment grade.
As well, Roubini failed to discuss the massive derivatives exposure financial firms had which could lead to mortgage and bank insolvencies.
Many people realized by fall of 2006 (when Roubini wrote his paper to the IMF) that the real estate market was in a bubble.
The real question is this. Did he really understand the full extent of the bubble, the full causes and ramifications?
Quite frankly, Nouriel Roubini had no idea what was going on.
Real estate bubbles come and go every ten to twenty years or so on average. And when they are large they can cause recessions. So predicting that the economy would enter a recession due to a real estate bubble is not much of an achievement. I liken it to an accomplishment of a business college undergraduate.
Did Roubini predict that the real estate bubble would be the worst in history? No.
Mike Stathis did. Cashing in on the Real Estate Bubble, January 2007 and America's Financial Apocalypse, October 2006
Did Roubini accurately predict the bottom in median residual home prices in advance? No. he didn't even offer a prediction.
Mike Stathis did. And his prediction was correct. America's Financial Apocalypse, October 2006
Did Roubini predict a massive blowup in the real estate derivatives market? No.
Mike Stathis did. America's Financial Apocalypse, October 2006
Did Roubini predict the bankruptcy of several sub-prime mortgage companies? No.
Mike Stathis did. And he even advised investors to short these stocks in advance. Cashing in on the Real Estate Bubble, January 2007
Did Roubini predict the bankruptcy and bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac? No.
Mike Stathis did. And he even advised investors to short these stocks in advance. Cashing in on the Real Estate Bubble, January 2007
Did Roubini predict the collapse of the banking system? No.
Mike Stathis did. And he even advised investors to short these stocks in advance. Cashing in on the Real Estate Bubble, January 2007
Yet, Roubini's buddies in the media and academia attribute him with having predicted the housing bust and financial crisis of 2008. It's simply not true. This is amazingly ridiculous and constitutes fraud.
In contrast, to this day I continue to be ignored and have received no acknowledgement (other than by Washington via the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission) that I not only predicted the financial crisis of 2008, I was really the only person who truly predicted it.
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