• The World's Leading Investment Mind Has Been   

    BANNED BY ALL MEDIA

  • Mike Stathis is the best financial analyst in the world. He is also the most widely banned financial expert in U.S. history. Learn why.

  • ALL MEDIA is controlled by the JEWISH MAFIA, which engages in Massive Fraud

  • The Media Doesn't Want You to Know the Truth 

  • Advertisers Control ALL Media Content

  • The Media's Goal is to Promote Clowns as Experts

    The Media Works With Wall Street to Rip You Off

  • Find Out What the Wall Street and Media Cabal Don't Want You to Know. Learn how to beat them at their own game.

  • AVA Investment Analytics Provides Research from

    the Best Investment Forecaster in the World

  • Stathis holds the Best Forecasting Track Record Since 2006.       

    Check his track record [1][2][3][4][5][6

  • Mike Stathis is neither a perma-bear nor perma-bull. He is a real investment analyst.  Perma-bears and perma-bulls are NOT credible.

  • Mike's ability to see what others cannot has enabled those who have had access to his research to make tremendous amounts of money 

  • Mike's rise as the World's Greatest Analyst began during his early years working on Wall Street

  • Today, he publishes investment research far superior to anything coming out of Wall Street

  • Skeptical?  Check His Track Record Yourself [1][2][3][4][5][6]

  • Don't Rely on Clowns and Disinformation. If you are not able to think for yourself you will always be a slave to scam artists.   

  • If You Keep Listening to the Media, You Will Keep Losing Money

  • AVA Investment Analytics is World's Best Source of

    Investment Research & Investor Education 

  • Mike Stathis' advice and research have been utilized by multi-billion dollar mutual funds, hedge funds & pension plans

  • AVA Investment Analytics is the World's Best investment research firm. Mike Stathis serves as the firm's chief investment strategist

Alerts

Opening Statement from the January 2020 CCPM Forecaster 

Opening Statement from the January 2020 CCPM Forecaster 

Originally published on January 6, 2020 (pre-market release)

 

Global Economic Overview

For the first time in several years we are witnessing the convergence of numerous macro risk factors which have weighed on investor sentiment. Sentiment continues to be led by trade disputes as well as the impact of persistently negative bond yields and declining interest rates. Meanwhile, geopolitical variables are increasing in prominence.

A broad assessment of the global macroeconomic landscape is sobering. The European Union economy continues to weaken as a result of the Washington-Beijing trade dispute. Moreover, significant levels of social and political unrest remain apparent.

This weakness in the EU has forced the ECB to extend the date of its first interest rate hike in more than a decade. In fact, our previous forecast of another rate cut by the ECB materialized recently.

In 2018 we mentioned that Germany would be adversely impacted by a prolonged trade dispute between Washington and Beijing given Germany’s high reliance on trade with China (Intelligent Investor). Over the past year Germany has reported two quarters of declining GDP growth. And it might already be in a recession by the time GDP data are revised. The EU’s second largest economy, France is not doing much better. Meanwhile, Italy remains in deep trouble.

The UK economy reported its first decline in GDP growth (q-o-q) in ten years while the pound continues to get hammered as a result of the uncertainty regarding if, when and under what conditions England intends to leave the EU.

Latin America remains volatile led by an unprecedented economic and political crisis in Venezuela which continues to be marked by chronic hyperinflation which has led to human suffering. U.S. economic sanctions have made the situation much worse.

Argentina faces its own political turmoil and ongoing economic crisis, having received the largest loan in IMF history. And Brazil continues its struggle to recover from its worst economic and political crisis in history. More recently, Bolivia and Chile are now experiencing social unrest.

Despite several attempts to boost growth, the Japanese economy remains weak. And we cannot forget about ongoing tensions between South Korea and Japan stemming from a legal dispute from forced Korean labor during WWII. The dispute has created numerous trade issues including Korean boycotts of Japanese goods. 

Political crises in Iraq and Lebanon have recently added to the many challenges in the Middle East (i.e. Syria, Iran and Saudi Arabia).

Although the Chinese economy has managed to hold up relatively well during its trade dispute with the U.S., we remain skeptical regarding the accuracy of its publicly reported economic data. Even still, GDP growth continues to decline and has now reached a 27-year low at 6.0%.

With a slowing economy and mounting trade pressures, China remains in a vulnerable position with nowhere to turn. Over the past few years China’s total debt has skyrocketed to 300 percent of GDP accounting for 15 percent of all global debt.

Unlike the situation prior to the 2008 global financial crisis...

This article continues.

To continue viewing this entry please sign in to your Client or Member account.


Restrictions Against Reproduction: No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without the prior written permission of the copyright owner and the Publisher.

These articles and commentaries cannot be reposted or used in any publications for which there is any revenue generated directly or indirectly. These articles cannot be used to enhance the viewer appeal of any website, including any ad revenue on the website, other than those sites for which specific written permission has been granted. Any such violations are unlawful and violators will be prosecuted in accordance with these laws.

Article 19 of the United Nations' Universal Declaration of Human Rights: Everyone has the right to freedom of opinion and expression; this right includes freedom to hold opinions without interference and to seek, receive and impart information and ideas through any media and regardless of frontiers.

This publication (written, audio and video) represents the commentary and/or criticism from Mike Stathis or another individual affiliated with Mike Stathis or AVA Investment Analytics (referred to hereafter as the “author”). Therefore, it is only an opinion and thus should not be taken to be factual. There is always a possibility that the author has made one or more unintentional errors, misinterpreted information, and/or excluded information which might have altered the commentary and/or criticisms. Hence, you are advised to conduct your own independent investigation so that you can form your own conclusions. We encourage the public to contact us if we have made any errors in statements or assumptions. We also encourage the public to contact us if we have left out relevant information which might alter our conclusions. We cannot promise a response, but we will consider all valid information.


0:00
0:00