"Never argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience." –Mark Twain
If you want to fully understand and appreciate the work of Mike Stathis, from his market forecasts and securities analysis to his political and economic analyses, you will need to learn how to think clearly if you already lack this vital skill.
For many, this will be a cleansing process that could take quite a long time to complete depending on each individual.
The best way to begin clearing your mind is to move forward with this series of steps:
1. GET RID OF YOUR TV SET, AND ONLY USE STREAMING SERVICES SPARINGLY.
2. REFUSE TO USE YOUR PHONE TO TEXT.
3. DO NOT USE A "SMART (DUMB) PHONE" (or at least do not use your phone to browse the Internet unless absolutely necessary).
4. STAY AWAY FROM SOCIAL MEDIA (Facebook, Instagram, Whatsapp, Snap, Twitter, Tik Tok unless it is to spread links to this site).
5. STAY OFF JEWTUBE.
6. AVOID ALL MEDIA (as much as possible).
The cleansing process will take time but you can hasten the process by being proactive in exercising your mind.
You should also be aware of a very common behavior exhibited by humans who have been exposed to the various aspects of modern society. This behavior occurs when an individual overestimates his abilities and knowledge, while underestimating his weaknesses and lack of understanding. This behavior has been coined the "Dunning-Kruger Effect" after two sociologists who described it in a research publication. See here.
Many people today think they are virtual experts on every topic they place importance on. The reason for this illusory behavior is because these individuals typically allow themselves to become brainwashed by various media outlets and bogus online sources. The more information these individuals obtain on these topics, the more qualified they feel they are to share their views with others without realizing the media is not a valid source with which to use for understanding something. The media always has bias and can never be relied on to represent the full truth. Furthermore, online sources are even more dangerous for misinformation, especially due to the fact that search algorithms have been designed to create confirmation bias.
A perfect example of the Dunning-Kruger Effect can be seen with many individuals who listen to talk radio shows. These shows are often politically biased and consist of individuals who resemble used car salesmen more than intellectuals. These talking heads brainwash their audience with cherry-picked facts, misstatements, and lies regarding relevant issues such as healthcare, immigration, Social Security, Medicaid, economics, science, and so forth. They also select guests to interview based on the agendas they wish to fulfill with their advertisers rather than interviewing unbiased experts who might share different viewpoints than the host.
Once the audience has been indoctrinated by these propagandists, they feel qualified to discuss these topics on the same level as a real authority, without realizing that they obtained their understanding from individuals who are employed as professional liars and manipulators by the media.
Another good example of the Dunning-Kruger Effect can be seen upon examination of political pundits, stock market and economic analysts on TV. They talk a good game because they are professional speakers. But once you examine their track record, it is clear that these individuals are largely wrong. But they have developed confidence in speaking about these topics due to an inflated sense of expertise in topics for which they continuously demonstrate their incompetence.
One of the most insightful analogies created to explain how things are often not what you see was Plato's Allegory of the Cave, from Book 7 of the Republic.
We highly recommend that you study this masterpiece in great detail so that you are better able to use logic and reason. From there, we recommend other classics from Greek philosophers. After all, ancient Greek philosophers like Plato and Socrates created critical thinking.
If you can learn how to think like a philosopher, ideally one of the great ancient Greek philosophers, it is highly unlikely that you will ever be fooled by con artists like those who make ridiculous and unfounded claims in order to pump gold and silver, the typical get-rich-quick, or multi-level marketing (MLM) crowd.
If you want to do well as an investor, you must first understand how various forces are seeking to deceive you.
Most people understand that Wall Street is looking to take their money.
But do they really understand the means by which Wall Street achieves these objectives?
Once you understand the various tricks and scams practiced by Wall Street you will be better able to avoid being taken.
Perhaps an even greater threat to investors is the financial media.
The single most important thing investors must do if they aim to become successful is to stay clear of all media.
That includes social media and other online platforms with investment content such as YouTube and Facebook, which are one million times worse than the financial media.
The various resources found within this website address these two issues and much more.
Remember, you can have access to the best investment research in the world. But without adequate judgment, you will not do well as an investor.
You must also understand how the Wall Street and financial media parasites operate in order to do well as an investor.
It is important to understand how the Jewish mafia operates so that you can beat them at their own game.
The Jewish mafia runs both Wall Street and the media. This cabal also runs many other industries.
We devote a great deal of effort exposing the Jewish mafia in order to position investors with a higher success rate in achieving their investment goals.
Always remember the following quotes as they apply to the various charlatans positioned by the media as experts and business leaders.
“Beware of false prophets, which come to you in sheep's clothing, but inwardly they are ravening wolves.” - King James Bible - Matthew 7:15
"It's easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled." –Mark Twain
It's also very important to remember this FACT. All Viewpoints Are Not Created Equal.
Just because something is published in print, online, or aired in broadcast media does not make it accurate.
More often than not, the larger the audience, the more likely the content is either inaccurate or slanted.
The next time you read something about economics or investments, you should ask the following question in order to determine the credibility of the source.
Is the source biased in any way?
That is, does the source have any agendas which would provide some kind of benefit accounting for conclusions that were made?
Most individuals who operate websites or blogs sell ads or merchandise of some kind. In particular, websites that sell precious metals are not credible sources of information because the views published on these sites are biased and cannot be relied upon.
The following question is one of the first things you should ask before trusting anyone who is positioned as an expert.
Is the person truly credible?
Most people associate credibility with name-recognition. But more often than not, name-recognition serves as a predictor of bias if not lack of credibility because the more a name is recognized, the more the individual has been plastered in the media.
Most individuals who have been provided with media exposure are either naive or clueless. The media positions these types of individuals as “credible experts” in order to please its financial sponsors; those who buy advertisements.
In the case of the financial genre, instead of name-recognition or media celebrity status, you must determine whether your source has relevant experience on Wall Street as opposed to being self-taught. But this is just a basic hurdle that in itself by no means ensures the source is competent or credible.
It's much more important to carefully examine the track record of your source in depth, looking for accuracy and specific forecasts rather than open-ended statements. You must also look for timing since a broken clock is always right once a day. Finally, make sure they do not cherry-pick their best calls. Always examine their entire track record.
Don't ever believe the claims made by the source or the host interviewing the source regarding their track record.
Always verify their track record yourself.
The above question requires only slight modification for use in determining the credibility of sources that discuss other topics, such as politics, healthcare, etc.
We have compiled the most extensive publication exposing hundreds of con men pertaining to the financial publishing and securities industry, although we also cover numerous con men in the media and other front groups since they are all associated in some way with each other.
There is perhaps no one else in the world capable of shedding the full light on these con men other than Mike Stathis.
Mike has been a professional in the financial industry for nearly three decades.
Alhough he publishes numerous articles and videos addressing the dark side of the industry, the core collection can be found in our ENCYCLOPEDIA of Bozos, Hacks, Snake Oil Salesmen and Faux Heroes.
Also, the Image Library contains nearly 8,000 images, most of which are annotated.
At AVA Investment Analytics, we don't pump gold, silver, or equities because we are not promoters or marketers.
We actually expose precious metals pumpers, while revealing their motives, means, and methods.
We do not sell advertisements.
We actually go to great lengths to expose the ad-based content scam that's so pervasive in the world today.
We do not receive any compensation from our content, other than from our investment research, which is not located on this website.
We provide individual investors, financial advisers, analysts and fund managers with world-class research and unique insight.
If you listen to the media, most likely at minimum it's going to cost you hundreds of thousands of dollars over the course of your life time.
The deceit, lies, and useless guidance from the financial media is certainly a large contributor of these losses.
But a good deal of lost wealth comes in the form of excessive consumerism which the media encourages and even imposes upon its audience.
You aren’t going to know that you’re being brainwashed, or that you have lost $1 million or $2 million over your life time due to the media.
But I can guarantee you that with rare exception this will become the reality for those who are naïve enough to waste time on media.
It gets worse.
By listening to the media you are likely to also suffer ill health effects through excessive consumption of prescription drugs, and/or as a result of watching ridiculous medical shows, all of which are supportive of the medical-industrial complex.
And if you seek out the so-called "alternative media" as a means by which to escape the toxic nature of the "mainstream" media, you might make the mistake of relying on con men like Kevin Trudeau, Alex Jones, Joe Rogan, and many others.
This could be a deadly decision. As bad as the so-called "mainstream" media is, the so-called "alternative media" is even worse.
There are countless con artists spread throughout the media who operate in the same manner. They pretend to be on your side as they "expose" the "evil" government and corporations.
Their aim is to scare you into buying their alternatives. This addresses the nutritional supplements industry which has become a huge scam.
Why Does the Media Air Liars and Con Men?
The goal of the media is NOT to serve its audience because the audience does NOT pay its bills.
The goal of the media is to please its sponsors, or the companies that spend huge dollars buying advertisements.
And in order for companies to justify these expenses, they need the media to represent their cause.
The media does this by airing idiots and con artists who mislead and confuse the audience.
By engaging in "journalistic fraud," the media steers its audience into the arms of its advertisers because the audience is now misled and confused.
The financial media sets up the audience so that they become needy after having lost large amounts of money listening to their "experts." Desperate for professional help, the audience contacts Wall Street brokerage firms, mutual funds, insurance companies, and precious metals dealers that are aired on financial networks. This is why these firms pay big money for adverting slots in the financial media.
We see the same thing on a more obvious note in the so-called "alternative media," which is really a remanufactured version of the "mainstream media." Do not be fooled. There is no such thing as the "alternative media." It really all the same.
In order to be considered "media" you must have content that has widespread channels of distribution. Thus, all "media" is widely distributed.
And the same powers that control the distribution of the so-called "mainstream media" also control distribution of the so-called "alternative media."
The claim that there is an "alternative media" is merely a sales pitch designed to capture the audience that has since given up on the "mainstream media."
The tactic is a very common one used by con men.
The same tactic is used by Washington to convince naive voters that there are meaningful differences between the nation's two political parties.
In reality, both parties are essentially the same when it comes to issues that matter most (e.g. trade policy and healthcare) because all U.S. politicians are controlled by corporate America. Anyone who tells you anything different simply isn't thinking straight.
On this site, we expose the lies and the liars in the media.
We discuss and reveal the motives and track record of the media’s hand-selected charlatans with a focus on the financial media.
To date, we know of no one who has established a more accurate track record in the investment markets since 2006 than Mike Stathis.
Yet, the financial media wants nothing to do with Stathis.
This has been the case from day one when he was black-balled by the publishing industry after having written his landmark 2006 book, America's Financial Apocalypse.
From that point on, he was black-balled throughout all so-called mainstream media and then even the so-called alternative media.
With very rare exception, you aren't even going to hear him on the radio or anywhere else being interviewed.
Ask yourself why.
You aren't going to see him mentioned on any websites either, unless its by people whom he has exposed.
You aren't likely to ever read or hear of his remarkable investment research track record anywhere, unless you read about it on this website.
You should be wondering why this might be.
Some of you already know the answer.
The media banned Mike Stathis because the trick used by the media is to promote cons and clowns so that the audience will be steered into the hands of the media's financial sponsors - Wall Street, gold dealers, etc.
Because the media is run by the Jewish mafia and because most Jews practice a severe form of tribalism, the media will only promote Jews and gentiles who represent Jewish businesses.
And as for radio shows and websites that either don't know about Stathis or don't care to hear what he has to say, the fact is that they are so ignorant that they assume those who are plastered throughout media are credible.
And because they haven't heard Stathis anywhere in the media, even if they come across him, they automatically assume he's a nobody in the investment world simply because he has no media exposure. And they are too lazy to go through his work because they realize they are too stupid to understand the accuracy and relevance of his research.
Top investment professionals who know about Mike Stathis' track record have a much different view of him. But they cannot say so in public because Stathis is now considered a "controversial" figure due to his stance on the Jewish mafia.
Most people are in it for themselves. Thus, they only care about pitching what’s deemed as the “hot” topic because this sells ads in terms of more site visits or reads.
This is why you come across so many websites based on doom and conspiratorial horse shit run by con artists.
We have donated countless hours and huge sums of money towards the pursuit of exposing the con men, lies, and fraud.
We have been banned by virtually every media platform in the U.S and every website prior to writing about the Jewish mafia.
Mike Stathis was banned by all media early on because he exposed the realities of the United States.
The Jewish mafia has declared war on us because we have exposed the realities of the U.S. government, Wall Street, corporate America, free trade, U.S. healthcare, and much more.
Stathis has also been banned by alternative media because he exposed the truth about gold and silver.
We have even been banned from use of email marketing providers as a way to cripple our abilities to expand our reach.
You can talk about the Italian Mafia, and Jewish Hollywood can make 100s of movies about it.
BUT YOU CANNOT TALK ABOUT THE JEWISH MAFIA.
Because Mr. Stathis exposed so much in his 2006 book America's Financial Apocalypse, he was banned.
He was banned for writing about the following topics in detail: political correctness, illegal immigration, affirmative action, as well as the economic realities behind America's disastrous healthcare system, the destructive impact of free trade, and many other topics. He also exposed Wall Street fraud and the mortgage derivatives scam that would end of catalyzing the worst global crisis in history.
It's critical to note that the widespread ban on Mr. Stathis began well before he mentioned the Jewish mafia or even Jewish control of any kind.
It was in fact his ban that led him to realize precisely what was going on.
We only began discussing the role of the criminality of the Jewish mafia by late-2009, three years AFTER we had been black-listed by the media.
Therefore, no one can say that our criticism of the Jewish mafia led to Mike being black-listed (not that it would even be acceptable).
If you dare to expose Jewish control or anything under Jewish control, you will be black-balled by all media so the masses will never hear the truth.
Just remember this. Mike does not have to do what he is doing.
Instead, he could do what everyone else does and focus on making money.
He has already sacrificed a huge fortune to speak the truth hoping to help people steer clear of fraudsters and to educate people as to the realities in order to prevent the complete enslavement of world citizenry.
Rule #1: Those With Significant Exposure Are NOT on Your Side.
No one who has significant exposure should ever be trusted. Such individuals should be assumed to be gatekeepers until proven otherwise. I have never found an exception to this rule.
Understand that those responsible for permitting or even facilitating exposure have given exposure to specific individuals for a very good reason. And that reason does not serve your best interests.
In short, I have significant empirical evidence to conclude that everyone who has a significant amount of exposure has been bought off (in some way) by those seeking to distort reality and control the masses. This is not a difficult concept to grasp. It's propaganda 101.
Rule #2: Con Artists Like to Form Syndicates.
Before the Internet was created, con artists were largely on their own. Once the Internet was released to the civilian population, con artists realized that digital connectivity could amplify their reach, and thus the effectiveness of their mind control tactics. This meant digital connectivity could amplify the money con artists extract from their victims by forming alliances with other con artists.
Teaming up with con artists leads to a significantly greater volume of content and distraction, such that victims of these con artists are more likely to remain trapped within the web of deceit, as well as being more convinced that their favorite con artist is legit.
Whenever you wish to know whether someone can be trusted, always remember this golden rule..."a man is judged by the company he keeps." This is a very important rule to remember because con men almost always belong to the same network. You will see the same con artists interviewing each other,referencing each other, (e.g. a hat tip) on the same blog rolls, attending the same conferences, mentioning their con artist peers, and so forth.
Rule #3: There's NO Free Lunch.
Whenever something is marketed as being "free" you can bet the item or service is either useless or else the ultimate price you'll pay will be much greater than if you had paid money for it in the beginning.
You should always seek to establish a monetary relationship with all vendors because this establishes a financial link between you the customer and the vendor. Therefore, the vendor will tend to serve and protect your best interests because you pay his bills.
Those who use the goods and services from vendors who offer their products for free will treated not as customers, but as products, because these vendors will exploit users who are obtaining their products for free in order to generate income.
Use of free emails, free social media, free content is all complete garbage designed to obtain your data and sell it to digital marketing firms.
From there you will be brainwashed with cleverly designed ads. You will be monitored and your identity wil eventually be stolen.
Fraudsters often pitch the "free" line in order to lure greedy people who think they can get something for free.
Perhaps now you understand why the system of globalized trade was named "free trade."
As you might appreciate, free trade has been a complete disaster and scam designed to enrich the wealthy at the expense of the poor.
There are too many examples of goods and services positioned as being free, when in reality, the customers get screwed.
Rule #4: Beware of Manipulation Using Word Games.
When manipulators want to get the masses to side with their propaganda and ditch more legitimate alternatives they often select psychologically relevant labels to indicate positive or negative impressions.
For instance, the financial parasites running America's medical-industrial complex have designated the term "socialized medicine" to replace the original, more accurate term, "universal healthcare." This play on words has been done to sway the masses from so much as even investigating universal healthcare, because the criminals want to keep defrauding people with their so-called "market-based" healthcare scam, which has accounted for the number one cause of personal bankruptcies in the USA for many years.
When Wall Street wanted to convince the American people to go along with NAFTA, they used the term "free trade" to describe the current system of trade which has devastated the U.S. labor force.
In reality, free trade is unfair trade and only benefits the wealthy and large corporations.
There are many examples on this play on words such as the "sharing economy" and so on.
Rule #5: Whenever Someone Promotes Something that Offers to Empower You, It's Usually a Scam.
This applies to the life coaches, self-help nonsense, libertarian pitches, FIRE movement, and so on.
If it sounds too good to be true, it usually is.
Unlike what the corporate fascists claim, we DO need government.
And no, you can NOT become financially independent and retire early unless you sell this con game to suckers.
Rule #6: "Never argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience." –Mark Twain
Following this rule is forcing the small and dewindling group of intelligent people left in the world to cease interacting with people.
You might need to get accustomed to being alone if you're intelligent and would rather not waste your time arguing with someone who is so ignorant, that they have no chance to realize what's really going in this world.
It would seem that Dunning-Kruger has engulfed much of the population, especially in the West.
The full ChatGPT analysis can be accessed here.
An overview of Mike Stathis' investment research track record: here, here, here, and here.
Check out our Track Record Image Library: here
Stathis' 2008 Financial Crisis Track Record: [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] and [13]
Chapter 12 of Cashing in on the Real Estate Bubble (2007)
Chapter 10 of America's Financial Apocalypse (2006 original extended edition).
Chapter 16 & 17 Excerpts America's Financial Apocalypse (2006 original extended edition).
Mike Stathis’s US and Emerging Markets Forecasts (2020–2024): Comprehensive Analysis
Mike Stathis, chief strategist at AVA Investment Analytics, produces the Intelligent Investor research which provides monthly market forecasts for the U.S. and key emerging markets (China, India, Brazil).
This report examines Stathis’s guidance from 2020 through 2024 on a month-by-month basis, evaluating his macroeconomic analysis, market calls (tops and bottoms), and asset allocation advice.
We compare his forecasts to actual outcomes and to mainstream Wall Street views (e.g. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, BofA, Citi, ARK Invest), and we rate his accuracy, insight, and timing.
Two tables at the end summarize his forecast performance for U.S. and EM markets, with scores for each key call.
Note: All citations are from Stathis’s Intelligent Investor research (PDFs and webinar notes) unless otherwise noted.
Below are a few summary tables highlighting the results of the research from the Intelligent Investor between 2020 and 2024, followed by a two tables comparing Stathis's research results and that of major Wall Street firms.
2020
U.S. Market Forecasts & Guidance (2020)
Early 2020 (Pre-Pandemic): In the months leading up to the COVID-19 crash, Stathis monitored economic data and market valuations closely. There is no indication he specifically predicted a pandemic; however, he had been cautious about elevated valuations and corporate debt even before COVID. When the pandemic hit in March 2020, the S&P 500 plunged over 30% in weeks.
Stathis’s March 2020 Economic & Market Notes analyzed the unfolding crisis. He acknowledged the unprecedented nature of the lockdown-induced recession but also noted the equally unprecedented policy response (Fed rate cuts to zero, massive QE, and fiscal stimulus).
Rather than panic, Stathis anticipated that these aggressive interventions would put a floor under markets. He advised clients to “focus on fundamentals and the policy response” rather than succumbing to fear.
While many analysts were forecasting a protracted bear market, Stathis expected a strong rebound once the virus was contained and stimulus took effect. Indeed, he guided investors to remain invested and prepare to buy selectively at depressed prices (especially quality blue-chip and defensive stocks). This proved prescient – late March 2020 marked the market bottom, and a powerful rally followed.
Mid-2020 (Recovery and Fed Support): As the Fed and Congress injected trillions of dollars, Stathis turned optimistic on the economic recovery and market upside.
By mid-2020, he noted that the same factors that would later fuel a bubble (zero rates, liquidity, fiscal aid) were justifying higher stock prices in the short run.
He tracked improving data (e.g. a rebound in jobs and consumer spending) and correctly argued that stimulus would outweigh the deep but brief recession, leading to a V-shaped market recovery.
Notably, Stathis remained fully invested through this period, unlike some who stayed in cash expecting another crash. He was rewarded as the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all clawed back their losses by late summer 2020.
By fall 2020, however, he began warning that the market’s surge was breeding speculative excess.
Late 2020 (Bubble Warnings Begin): In September 2020, Stathis first alerted investors to a developing stock market bubble, specifically in the high-flying Nasdaq.
He pointed to frothy valuations in tech, a frenzy of IPOs/SPACs, and retail speculation (e.g. options trading, “meme” stocks) as signs of exuberance.
Uniquely, Stathis did not advise selling everything immediately – he assessed the bubble was in its “early to mid-stages” and likely to continue for 1–2 more years, given ongoing stimulus and investor euphoria.
Thus, “we recommended remaining fully invested” despite recognizing the bubble risk.
This nuanced stance proved wise.
Many Wall Street strategists at the time denied the market was a bubble at all, projecting further gains; a few bearish voices warned of a bubble bursting imminently, which would have meant exiting too early.
Stathis struck a balance: acknowledging the bubble, yet riding the remaining upside. Indeed, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 kept rallying into 2021, validating his timing.
By December 2020, however, Stathis reemphasized the dangers of the mounting bubble.
In that month’s Intelligent Investor webinar, he presented a special report titled “Crazy Valuations and Speculative Behaviors.”
He catalogued extreme market indicators: the S&P 500 forward P/E ratio hitting ~22.7 (a decade high) and anecdotal mania (retail day-trader fever, overpricing of “story” stocks).
Stathis warned that such conditions were unsustainable and would ultimately lead to a sharp correction or crash, though the exact timing was uncertain.
He compared the situation to the late 1990s dot-com bubble, cautioning that “this bubble will eventually pop, and the fallout could be severe.”
Importantly, he prepared his subscribers psychologically for a future downturn without scaring them out too early.
This foresight and communication in late 2020 demonstrated significant insight – very few mainstream analysts issued such stern bubble warnings at that time.
For example, most Wall Street banks’ year-end 2021 targets for the S&P were still bullish (the median forecast for 2021 was ~4,100, which the market exceeded) and in late 2020 they were looking for additional gains in 2022. Stathis’s stance was more cautious and ultimately justified.
Assessment 2020:
Accuracy: Stathis correctly anticipated the rapid post-COVID market recovery and later identified the early stages of a speculative bubble. He did not specifically “call” the March 2020 bottom in advance, but his guidance to stay calm and invested through the panic – and to exploit the Fed-fueled rebound – was spot-on.
Insight: He understood the policy-driven nature of the rally and the longer-term risks of froth. Highlighting bubble risks by September 2020 (well before the peak) showed foresight.
Timing: He kept clients in the market during 2020’s surge, then began shifting tone by late year. This timing was excellent – neither too early (avoiding premature exit) nor too late to recognize trouble.
Compared to consensus, which was broadly bullish into 2021 and largely dismissive of “bubble” talk, Stathis was ahead of the curve in flagging speculative excess.
Emerging Markets Forecasts & Guidance (2020)
Stathis’s 2020 EM analysis covered China, India, and Brazil, often via proxy ETFs (FXI for China, IFN for India, EWZ for Brazil). The pandemic’s impact on each economy and market was a key focus:
China: As the origin of COVID-19, China saw an early 2020 shock but also a relatively rapid recovery by Q2 2020.
Stathis noted that China’s aggressive lockdowns and stimulus enabled it to rebound sooner than Western economies.
He pointed out that by mid-2020, China’s industrial production and export machine was ramping back up, and GDP growth turned positive in Q2 2020 – far ahead of the U.S. and Europe. He correctly anticipated that
Chinese equities (FXI) could outperform in the early recovery phase. In fact, the China large-cap ETF (FXI) recovered from its March lows and traded strongly into late 2020.
However, Stathis also warned of longer-term issues in China that investors should not ignore, including U.S.-China trade tensions, high corporate debt, and property bubble risks.
While 2020 saw a strong Chinese market rally (aided by tech giants like Alibaba and Tencent), Stathis cautioned that regulatory and geopolitical risks loomed – a warning that would prove prescient in 2021 when Beijing’s regulatory crackdowns began.
India: India imposed one of the world’s strictest lockdowns in spring 2020, causing a severe economic contraction.
Stathis’s analysis in mid-2020 acknowledged India’s plunge in GDP (nearly –24% YoY in Q2 2020) but he also highlighted the country’s resilience and youthful demographics.
He was moderately optimistic that India’s economy would bounce back in H2 2020, albeit from a low base, once restrictions eased. Indeed, by Q4 2020 India was recovering, and the India Fund (IFN) – a closed-end fund Stathis often references – rebounded from around $12 in March to over $18 by year-end.
Stathis advised investors to watch India’s fiscal and monetary responses (which were smaller than in the U.S.) and to use volatility to accumulate long-term positions in Indian equities when attractive.
He also noted India’s structural positives (a growing tech/services sector, government reforms) while cautioning that high oil prices or renewed COVID waves could pose risks (a foresight that materialized with the Delta wave in 2021).
Brazil: Brazil was hit hard by COVID in 2020, both health-wise and economically.
Stathis tracked Brazil’s commodity-driven economy and the real (BRL) currency.
Early on, he predicted that Brazil’s exports (iron ore, soy, oil) would suffer initially but could benefit later from China’s recovery (since China is a major commodity buyer).
He also flagged the risk of a currency slide – indeed, the Brazilian real fell sharply in 2020, exacerbating inflation.
Stathis’s guidance on EWZ (Brazil equity ETF) in 2020 was cautious. He suggested that investors remain on the sidelines until Brazil’s policy response stabilized the situation. By Q3 2020, as commodity prices started rising again and Brazil’s central bank cut rates to record lows, Stathis noted signs of life in Brazil’s market.
However, he emphasized Brazil’s vulnerabilities: political turmoil (President Bolsonaro’s handling of the pandemic), double-digit inflation, and fiscal stress.
He recommended trading Brazilian equities opportunistically, for instance, “monitor the USD/BRL exchange rate – a break below 5.0 would be a bullish signal for EWZ”, and consider small allocations on significant dips.
This proved valuable: those who bought EWZ near the March 2020 lows (~$20) saw it rally above $30 by year-end. Still, Brazil underperformed the U.S. in 2020, a fact Stathis attributed to its macro challenges.
Assessment 2020 EM:
Accuracy: Stathis correctly assessed that China would lead the recovery (and Chinese stocks did well in 2020), India would rebound later in the year, and Brazil would lag due to structural issues.
Insight: He demonstrated insight by discussing not just market moves but the macro drivers (e.g. China’s stimulus, India’s oil vulnerability, Brazil’s currency risk).
For example, his emphasis on China’s zero-COVID strategy and stimulus foreshadowed the policy trade-offs that became crucial in later years.
Timing: In general, his EM timing in 2020 was solid – he did not panic-sell at the bottom and advocated adding exposure to EM during periods of maximum pessimism (e.g. late March 2020).
He didn’t capture every short-term swing, but his long-term positions were well-timed (especially China and India).
Compared to Wall Street consensus, Stathis was somewhat ahead in highlighting risks (Wall Street was very bullish on emerging markets heading into 2020, and after the crash many banks turned negative just as a rebound was forming).
By late 2020, consensus shifted bullish on EM again; Stathis shared optimism but tempered it with warnings about bubble-like behavior globally. This balanced view helped investors navigate EM with neither excessive fear nor complacency.
2021
U.S. Market Forecasts & Guidance (2021)
Early 2021 (Post-Pandemic Boom and Inflation Debate): U.S. markets continued their upward charge in early 2021, with the S&P 500 and Dow making new highs.
Stathis’s January–February 2021 guidance noted the unprecedented economic rebound fueled by vaccines, reopening, and more stimulus (the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan).
He remained bullish on equities early in the year but started to shift focus to inflation and interest rates.
Unlike the Federal Reserve and many Wall Street economists who insisted inflation would be “transitory,” Stathis warned that inflation could pose a bigger problem than consensus expected.
He cited supply chain bottlenecks and a tight labor market as inflation drivers that might persist, especially with aggressive fiscal stimulus fueling demand.
In Q1 2021, he also reminded investors that rising inflation and the prospect of Fed tightening could “put downward pressure on earnings growth and equity valuations”.
This was a noteworthy divergence from consensus: the Fed’s dot plot at that time projected no rate hikes until 2024, and many strategists were downplaying inflation. Stathis, by contrast, insisted the Fed would need to hike much sooner and more than planned – an insight that would prove correct in 2022.
Specifically, as early as Q1 2021 he forecast that “short-term interest rates would need to be raised several times before the end of 2023,” raising his estimate to 4–6 rate hikes by end-2023 (up from 3–4 previously).
This was far more hawkish than the Fed’s guidance of the time (which was just 1 hike by end-2023).
Stathis’s prescience on inflation and tightening stands out: he effectively saw the writing on the wall a year before the Fed acted.
During March 2021, tech stocks and speculative growth names suffered a sharp pullback (Nasdaq fell ~10% from its February peak).
Stathis interpreted this as a mini-bubble shakeout that temporarily “let off steam” from the most overheated parts of the market.
He observed that “in early 2021, the Nasdaq sold off, causing the risk of a bubble pop to subside” (the froth dipped but did not fully deflate).
Consequently, through mid-2021, Stathis continued to recommend a moderately high equity allocation, focusing on quality and cyclical stocks positioned to benefit from the reopening (industrials, financials, energy).
At the same time, he advocated shunning the most extreme speculative plays (profitless tech, meme stocks), believing the bubble was not yet fully burst but increasingly fragile.
This balanced approach helped avoid the worst of the spring 2021 tech rout, while still capturing the broad market’s gains – the S&P 500 quickly resumed hitting new highs by summer 2021.
Mid/Late 2021 (Re-Inflating Bubble and Peak Euphoria): By the second half of 2021, Stathis grew increasingly alarmed at market valuations and complacency. The Nasdaq and S&P surged to record highs again (Nasdaq peaked in November 2021).
He noted that “by the second half of 2021, the Nasdaq was back in full bubble mode” even as inflation was surging and supply chain issues persisted. Indeed, annual CPI inflation climbed above 5% by mid-2021 and kept rising, but investors largely shrugged it off. Stathis disagreed with the crowd’s sanguine view.
Throughout late 2021, he hammered home two points in his research:
(1) a recession risk was building for the coming years if the Fed didn’t act, and
(2) stock valuations would have to come down, one way or another.
He updated his “Crazy Valuations” analysis and pointed out that forward P/E ratios had expanded to ~21–22 by late 2021 despite rising macro risks.
Earnings were strong in 2021, but Stathis warned that growth would inevitably slow in 2022 while the Fed withdrew support.
Perhaps Stathis’s most significant call came at year-end 2021. In the November and December 2021 Intelligent Investor issues (Vol. 150 and 151), he issued his final bubble warning and a call to arms.
He wrote that Fed policy was about to shift – noting the Fed’s sudden move to “double its taper” of bond-buying in December 2021, which “positioned the Fed to raise rates by March [2022] if needed”. He highlighted that these developments were “largely consistent with our forecasts” from earlier in 2021.
In other words, he had anticipated the Fed’s hawkish turn. Stathis emphasized the importance of raising cash and reducing exposure before the crowd.
By late December, he was explicitly cautioning that a major market top was forming. He advised clients to start trimming positions on market strength, especially in overvalued sectors, and to rotate into defensives (he favored healthcare, staples, and energy going into 2022).
Notably, Stathis had a public track record of major crash calls (he famously predicted the 2008 financial crisis and market crash in his 2006 book).
In December 2021, he saw a similar setup:
“We have a stock bubble AND rising inflation – the Fed will be forced to act, and that’s when the music will stop.”
This stood in stark contrast to Wall Street consensus.
For example, going into 2022, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, BofA, and others were collectively forecasting the S&P 500 to rise further to between ~4,400 and 5,300 by end of 2022 – essentially predicting no downturn.
ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood was still extremely bullish on innovation stocks (ARKK peaked in Feb 2021 and was down in late 2021, but she predicted huge long-term gains).
In comparison, Stathis’s stance was decidedly bearish for 2022. He was unafraid to go against the consensus, leveraging his credibility from past successful forecasts.
December 2021 was effectively when Stathis “called the top.”
In early January 2022, the market indeed peaked (the S&P hit its all-time high on Jan 3, 2022).
In hindsight, Stathis’s warnings just weeks prior were remarkably on-target. As he later recapped:
“Although the Nasdaq made record highs in Nov 2021, the DJIA and S&P 500 continued to new highs through early January 2022 (3rd and 4th) before a concerning selloff began”.
He had prepared his subscribers just in time.
Assessment 2021 (US): Accuracy: Stathis was correct that 2021’s boom would transition into an inflation problem and policy tightening.
He was one of the few sounding alarms about persistent inflation and the need for multiple rate hikes well before the Fed pivoted.
He also accurately pegged late 2021/early 2022 as the market top.
Insight: His analysis of the bubble’s progression was insightful – he knew it wasn’t done in 2020, but by late 2021 it was ripe to burst.
Identifying the interplay of inflation, Fed policy errors, and overvaluation showed deep foresight.
Timing: He maintained the rally through most of 2021 (staying invested during continued gains) and only turned extremely defensive right near the peak. This timing was superb.
Compared to consensus, which largely missed the severity of 2022’s risks, Stathis was far ahead.
For instance, while the Fed was still buying bonds and saying no hikes until 2023, he was already talking about 4–6 hikes by 2023.
His call to raise cash in Dec 2021/Jan 2022 was almost perfectly timed, earning him very high marks on timing.
Emerging Markets Forecasts & Guidance (2021)
China 2021: Stathis’s outlook on China in 2021 turned increasingly cautious and proved prescient. Early in the year, China’s economy was booming (8%+ GDP growth) and markets were near multi-year highs. However, by mid-2021 Beijing began a series of regulatory crackdowns (on tech companies like Alibaba and Tencent, private education firms, property developers like Evergrande, etc.).
Stathis had flagged China’s regulatory and debt risks before these events unfolded. He reminded investors that
“China’s economy is not as strong as it appears beneath the surface”
and cited the massive real estate bubble and corporate debt loads.
In July 2021, when the CCP’s crackdowns caused Chinese stocks to plunge, Stathis was not caught off guard. He had warned that the Chinese Communist Party’s policy shifts (e.g. toward “common prosperity”) could hurt investors.
Indeed, he wrote about Evergrande’s looming crisis and the likelihood of a property-led slowdown in China.
He adjusted his guidance for FXI (China large-cap ETF) accordingly: rather than a pure long-term bullish stance, he recommended trading around policy events.
For example, if Beijing announced major stimulus, expect a short-term rally, but otherwise prepare for declines. This is encapsulated in his late 2021 view that “Chinese stocks are vulnerable, but could rally on stimulus news – be nimble”.
By year-end 2021, FXI had indeed dropped significantly (Chinese markets fell ~20% in 2021 from their peak), and Stathis’s caution saved investors from heavy losses.
Consensus vs Stathis: Many Wall Street firms were blindsided by the intensity of China’s crackdowns; Stathis was ahead in highlighting political risk in China.
His 2021 China GDP forecast was also sober – he predicted growth would slow sharply in 2022 (down to ~5% or lower) due to these issues, which was more pessimistic than the IMF/consensus ~5.6%. (Ultimately, China grew just 3% in 2022, validating his concerns.)
India 2021: India’s market had a stellar 2021, with the Sensex/Nifty up ~20+%. Stathis recognized India’s strong post-COVID recovery but also tempered enthusiasm with risk factors. Notably, India was struck by the Delta variant wave in Q2 2021, causing a temporary economic setback. Stathis monitored indicators like inflation and the RBI’s policy. Throughout 2021, India faced rising inflation (from both oil prices and supply chain issues).
Stathis repeatedly stressed that inflation was “the major risk” for India. The Reserve Bank of India kept rates low through 2021, but Stathis forecast that rate hikes were on the horizon as soon as growth stabilized. True enough, by early 2022 the RBI started raising rates.
In terms of market guidance, Stathis liked India’s long-term story but was wary of high valuations by late 2021. The India Fund (IFN), for instance, often traded at a premium. Stathis suggested tactical moves like capturing dividends:
“Enter IFN on downturns to position for the next dividend, and take profits if it rallies before ex-date”.
He also warned that a global recession or risk-off event could push IFN to the low teens (it was ~$18–20 in 2021). This hedged approach was prudent; IFN did dip in early 2022 to ~$15 when global markets sold off.
Compared to consensus: Wall Street in 2021 was broadly bullish on India (often citing it as a top EM pick). Stathis agreed on India’s appeal but correctly foresaw inflation and rate risks that could cap further explosive gains.
His GDP forecasts for India were a bit lower than official estimates – for example, he estimated FY2022 growth ~6.5% vs RBI’s 7%+, and projected 2023 growth ~5.9% (versus consensus ~7%). This turned out to be realistic: India’s growth did moderate into the 6% range.
Brazil 2021: Stathis’s commentary on Brazil focused on its boom-bust cycles tied to commodities and inflation. In the first half of 2021, as global commodity prices surged (oil, metals, grains), Brazil’s economy got a short-lived boost and EWZ rallied. However, inflation in Brazil skyrocketed above 10%, prompting the Central Bank of Brazil to start hiking rates aggressively (from 2% in March 2021 to 7.75% by year-end).
Stathis praised Brazil’s central bank for acting early to combat inflation – a contrast to the Fed – but he also noted the cost: higher rates would choke growth and risk a recession in Brazil.
Throughout 2021, he advised keeping an eye on metrics like unemployment (which was high but gradually improving) and the USD/BRL exchange rate. In mid-2021, he suggested:
“Watch the USD/real – a breakdown of USD/BRL below 5.0 is bullish for EWZ”.
This was insightful as a strengthening real often coincides with positive sentiment. By late 2021, the real did firm up a bit (falling below 5.5 per USD after having been above 5.7), and EWZ was roughly flat on the year.
Stathis did not recommend heavy long-term allocation to Brazil in 2021; instead, he proposed a “wait-and-see approach” and reentry on significant dips.
For instance, when EWZ traded in the high-$20s in late 2021, he was inclined to be patient for a possible pullback to low-$20s before committing new capital. This caution was justified, as Brazil’s market remained volatile heading into 2022.
He also highlighted Brazil’s political risk: the looming 2022 election (Bolsonaro vs. Lula) could swing policy. In sum, Stathis balanced Brazil’s commodity-fueled upside against its structural pitfalls (debt, politics, inflation).
Consensus vs Stathis: Banks in 2021 were mixed on Brazil – some were optimistic due to commodities, others worried about politics.
Stathis was among those leaning negative near year-end 2021, essentially telling investors not to chase short-term commodity highs because a global tightening cycle could hurt Brazil. This proved correct as Brazil’s stocks lagged in early 2022.
Assessment 2021 EM: Accuracy: Stathis’s EM forecasts in 2021 were on target in key areas: he predicted China’s market troubles (correct), identified inflation as a threat in India and Brazil (correct, both saw high inflation and subsequent rate hikes), and didn’t overhype the commodity boom (correct, it cooled by late 2021).
Insight: He demonstrated deep understanding of each country’s unique issues (e.g. China’s policy motives, India’s oil reliance, Brazil’s fiscal discipline).
His call on China’s bubble risk and Evergrande’s implications was particularly insightful – those were major 2021 stories.
Timing: He adjusted views within the year as needed: bullish on China and EM to start 2021, but defensive by mid-year for China and by late-year for others as storm clouds gathered.
His timing on reducing China exposure ahead of the crackdown meltdown was excellent.
Similarly, taking profits on commodity strength in mid-2021 (Brazil) helped avoid late-year declines.
Compared to consensus, Stathis was ahead on recognizing negative catalysts (especially China’s shift).
While many strategists remained overweight EM into late 2021 (a common recommendation was “OW China/EM for 2022” which turned out poorly),
Stathis had already moved to a more cautious stance.
This gave his subscribers a significant edge.
2022
U.S. Market Forecasts & Guidance (2022)
Early 2022 (Market Top and Aggressive Bearish Stance): Stathis entered 2022 with one of the most bearish outlooks among market strategists – a stance that would be vindicated.
In January 2022, even as consensus was still optimistic, Stathis repeatedly warned that “a recession and stock market collapse” were high-probability risks.
He highlighted a confluence of factors: stubborn inflation, the Fed’s impending rate hikes, extreme valuations, and slowing earnings growth.
Notably, in the first week of January he wrote that the chance of a U.S. recession within ~12–18 months was over 70% (assigning a much higher probability than most did at the time).
As the market began to weaken in mid-January, Stathis didn’t view it as a routine dip – he believed it was the start of the bubble unraveling.
By early February 2022, Stathis made a bold and decisive recommendation: he advised subscribers to move 50% to 70% of their portfolio to cash. Specifically, he said to do this
“by selling selectively on strength or if positions were not already down by a lot”.
In practice, this meant using any short-term rallies to lighten up on equities, especially high-risk ones, and to raise a large cash buffer. This call was exceptionally well-timed.
The S&P 500 had already fallen roughly 5–10% in January, but it briefly rebounded in early February – exactly the window Stathis targeted for selling. Just weeks later, the market plunged again.
His guidance effectively protected investors from the bulk of the 2022 meltdown.
Few, if any, major strategists recommended such a high cash allocation at that time.
To illustrate consensus: JPMorgan in January 2022 was still advising to “buy the dip,” and Goldman’s chief strategist predicted the S&P would end 2022 around 5,100. Stathis stood virtually alone in advocating a mostly-cash defensive stance.
In his February 2022 research, Stathis also stressed the coming “collapse in valuations”.
He wrote that it was essentially certain P/E multiples would contract significantly because of the “certainty of a good deal of interest rate hikes”.
This was spot-on: forward P/E on the S&P 500 fell from ~21 at start of 2022 to nearly 15 by mid-year as prices fell.
Stathis’s conviction that the Fed would have to be far more aggressive than investors expected gave him confidence to stick with a bearish view even during bear market rallies.
Q1 2022 Developments: The Fed finally kicked off tightening (a 25 bps hike in March 2022), and Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb 24, 2022 – an event that roiled markets, spiked commodity prices, and added complexity to the outlook. Stathis navigated these events adeptly. He noted the war’s immediate impact:
“Oil and other commodities prices soared while the stock market sold off”.
But he cautioned against overreacting to the war alone; the core issue remained the Fed/inflation. In fact, he argued the war accelerated trends already in place (inflation, supply shocks).
His guidance for Q1 was to remain in a defensive posture despite high volatility.
When late March 2022 saw a sharp relief rally (the S&P bounced ~10% off its lows), Stathis did not flip bullish. Instead, he identified it as another chance to reduce risk. He described that period as “the stock market began what would end up being an unprecedented sell-off lasting through late May” after a brief rebound.
His writing in April emphasized that the yield curve inversion (which occurred briefly) was not the cause of recession per se, but that the “data and risks” behind it (inflation, Fed tightening) were what mattered.
Unlike some who dismissed the inverted yield curve as a false signal, Stathis said it shouldn’t be ignored but one must understand why it’s happening – in this case, because the Fed was behind the curve and would have to tighten into a slowing economy, a classic recession recipe.
Mid 2022 (Bear Market Rallies and Lower Lows): By mid-year 2022, the U.S. was in a bear market (S&P 500 down >20% by June).
Stathis’s analysis during this phase was extremely detailed.
He continuously updated subscribers on downside targets and the evolving macro picture. In July 2022, after a steep drop, he noted the S&P 500 had briefly hit ~3600 – which he called the “If God intervenes” best-case scenario bottom. But he warned “nothing is fixed” in the economy yet.
He posited two scenarios forward: a
Mild recession (more likely) in which the S&P might bottom around 3,300–3,400, and a
Severe recession where a bottom could be 2,700–2,800.
For the Dow, mild scenario bottom ~27,000–28,000, severe ~24,500.
For the Nasdaq, mild ~9,500–10,100, severe ~7,500. These ranges were remarkably specific.
He essentially gave subscribers a bear market roadmap.
By October 2022, as the Fed had hiked multiple times and recession risks rose, he even nudged the potential S&P floor a bit lower:
“For the S&P 500, 3,100 to 3,200 is more probable than before” if a full recession hits. He clarified these were rough guesstimates, not precise predictions.
Crucially, Stathis never proclaimed the bear market over prematurely. Throughout the rallies of March 2022 and July–August 2022 (when the S&P bounced ~17% off the June low), he urged investors to “resist the urge to buy into rallies” and to focus on deteriorating fundamentals.
He wrote that the market’s summer rally was driven by “irrational behavior” and that nothing fundamental had improved – inflation was still high, the Fed was still hiking, and earnings estimates were starting to fall.
He kept his recommended allocation at 50–70% cash and the remainder mostly in defensive sectors.
For example, he favored energy (which was benefiting from commodity spikes) and healthcare/defensives, while underweighting tech and consumer cyclicals.
This allocation was tremendously effective: Energy stocks soared in H1 2022, while tech and growth stocks were crushed by rising yields – exactly as Stathis anticipated (he had noted back in 2021 that “high growth, no earnings” stocks would be most impacted by multiple contraction).
Late 2022 (Identifying the Bottom and Outlook Shift): The U.S. market ultimately bottomed in mid-October 2022 (S&P ~3490).
At that point, Stathis was still cautious, but there are indications he began to consider that the worst might soon be over.
In the October 2022 notes, after documenting the brutal Q3 market stats (worst month since 2002, etc.), he posed critical questions:
“When will the market reach a bottom? How should you handle the current situation?”
He answered candidly that timing the exact bottom is tough and it depends on one’s risk tolerance and age, but he reinforced principles: keep some cash ready and
“you will need to start buying when things look bad”.
He encouraged gradually redeploying cash when fear was highest, because “if you wait for positive signs, you will have missed a great deal of upside”.
This was essentially foreshadowing a pivot from pure defense to selective offense.
He still believed a recession in 2023 was likely (70% odds), but he thought it would probably be mild, and he openly wondered if the market had perhaps already priced in a lot of bad news.
By late 2022, Stathis also monitored Wall Street’s changing tune. He noted sarcastically that “Wall Street remains bullish” with an average 12-month S&P target near 4,700 even in mid-2022 – which he found absurd given the backdrop.
As of September 2022, he pointed out Wall Street still expected +30% gains ahead (target ~4,987) and assumed no recession. He used this to contrast his more grounded view.
Indeed, consensus was slow to cut forecasts; only by Q4 2022 did some big banks finally slash S&P targets into the 3,600–4,000 range, catching down to Stathis’s earlier projections.
When the market rallied strongly in October–November 2022 off the lows, Stathis participated carefully. He likely recommended closing some short positions or adding incrementally to equities on dips, while still hedging for further downside.
Importantly, he did not flip outright bullish at year-end 2022; he maintained that the stock market had not fully factored in a possible 2023 recession.
He noted that as of Sept 2022, “the stock market is factoring in a slowdown, not a recession”, evidenced by still-optimistic earnings estimates. He expected earnings to deteriorate and guided that any rallies could be capped.
This was accurate: the S&P 500 ended 2022 around 3,840, far below the starting point, and corporate earnings for 2022/H1 2023 indeed came in weaker, just as he had forecast (Q3 2022 earnings growth was cut from ~10% to ~3.7% by September).
Overall in 2022, Stathis’s performance was outstanding.
He essentially predicted the bear market, navigated it in real-time with specific advice, and protected capital.
His subscribers would have largely sidestepped the worst equity drawdowns by following his 50–70% cash call and only re-entering carefully later in the year.
Moreover, he identified key market turning points: the early-year top, the mid-year bear rally peak, and approximated the ultimate bottom zone (he expected ~3300, actual was ~3490 – a near miss, but within ~5%).
He also got the Fed’s path right: he predicted the Fed would hike to around 4% terminal by end of 2022 (the Fed got to 4.5% by Dec) and that aggressive hikes would continue until inflation showed clear control. He often explicitly said “assume at least 3.75%–4.0% terminal rate, maybe higher” when investors were doubting that – which was dead on.
Assessment 2022 (US): Accuracy: Exceptionally high.
Stathis essentially called 2022’s bear market in advance and navigated its twists (war, Fed, rallies) with precision.
He was correct on inflation not abating quickly, the Fed’s aggressive hikes, the impact on both stocks and bonds (he noted it was the worst start for a bond index in history, meaning even bonds weren’t safe – reinforcing his cash stance).
Insight: His insights on market psychology were notable – e.g. identifying bear market rallies as selling opportunities by focusing on fundamentals when many got bullish too soon.
He also uniquely stressed that cash was the only safe haven in 2022, which in hindsight was absolutely true (stocks and bonds both fell together).
Timing: Nearly perfect.
Sell early 2022, avoid false bottoms, consider buying back in late 2022 – one could hardly time it better without a crystal ball.
Compared to Wall Street, which continuously revised forecasts lower as the year progressed (often too late), Stathis was ahead at every step.
For example, Morgan Stanley and others only turned decisively bearish after the damage was done; Stathis was proactive.
In short, 2022 showcased Stathis’s foresight and disciplined strategy, reinforcing his reputation as a top market forecaster.
Emerging Markets Forecasts & Guidance (2022)
2022 was a tumultuous year for emerging markets as well, with many facing the twin shocks of rising U.S. interest rates and, for some, the ongoing effects of the pandemic or geopolitical issues. Stathis provided monthly forecasts for China, India, and Brazil, often with actionable trade ideas for FXI, IFN, and EWZ.
His EM guidance in 2022 was characterized by extreme caution punctuated by tactical trading opportunities. He generally recommended underweight or short-term trades in EM rather than long-term allocations, largely due to the global tightening cycle and country-specific problems. Here’s a breakdown:
China 2022: Stathis was bearish on China’s economy and stock market for most of 2022. He frequently cited China’s zero-COVID policy and the related lockdowns as a major economic drag. For example, in the July 2022 notes, he stated
“China’s zero-COVID policy is a disaster – economy now worse than 2020”.
He documented how repeated lockdowns (e.g. Shanghai in spring 2022) severely disrupted supply chains and consumer spe
Restrictions Against Reproduction: No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without the prior written permission of the copyright owner and the Publisher.
These articles and commentaries cannot be reposted or used in any publications for which there is any revenue generated directly or indirectly. These articles cannot be used to enhance the viewer appeal of any website, including any ad revenue on the website, other than those sites for which specific written permission has been granted. Any such violations are unlawful and violators will be prosecuted in accordance with these laws.
Article 19 of the United Nations' Universal Declaration of Human Rights: Everyone has the right to freedom of opinion and expression; this right includes freedom to hold opinions without interference and to seek, receive and impart information and ideas through any media and regardless of frontiers.
This publication (written, audio and video) represents the commentary and/or criticisms from Mike Stathis or other individuals affiliated with Mike Stathis or AVA Investment Analytics (referred to hereafter as the “author”). Therefore, the commentary and/or criticisms only serve as an opinion and therefore should not be taken to be factual representations, regardless of what might be stated in these commentaries/criticisms. There is always a possibility that the author has made one or more unintentional errors, misspoke, misinterpreted information, and/or excluded information which might have altered the commentary and/or criticisms. Hence, you are advised to conduct your own independent investigations so that you can form your own conclusions. We encourage the public to contact us if we have made any errors in statements or assumptions. We also encourage the public to contact us if we have left out relevant information which might alter our conclusions. We cannot promise a response, but we will consider all valid information.