Opening Statement from the August 2020 CCPM Forecaster
Originally published on August 3, 2020 (pre-market release)
Investors continue to express what we believe is an overly excessive level of optimism regarding expectations of a so-called “V-shaped” economic recovery. Much of this upbeat sentiment has been boosted further in recent weeks due to rising progress in the race to develop an efficacious COVID-19 vaccine. But even with the unprecedented level of monetary and economic stimulus provided thus far, global growth is sitting at record lows with very little clarity in sight.
If we assume a best-case scenario for resolution to the economic collapse caused by the irresponsible response to the COVID-19 pandemic, things do not look particularly promising for the foreseeable future. If an effective vaccine is developed before the end of 2020 (an expectation we have held since March) it will still take many months to produce the vaccine in sufficient quantities. And it will require an even longer period to inoculate billions of people around the world with this vaccine.
But even after everyone has been inoculated with a COVID-19 vaccine, things have already changed forever moving forward. COVID-19 ushered in a watershed event much like how the attacks on the World Trade Center introduced the world to a new and more restricted way of life as a result of the “war on terror.” This is a separate discussion to be reserved for another time....
This article continues.
To continue viewing this entry please sign in to your Client or Member account.
Restrictions Against Reproduction: No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without the prior written permission of the copyright owner and the Publisher.
These articles and commentaries cannot be reposted or used in any publications for which there is any revenue generated directly or indirectly. These articles cannot be used to enhance the viewer appeal of any website, including any ad revenue on the website, other than those sites for which specific written permission has been granted. Any such violations are unlawful and violators will be prosecuted in accordance with these laws.
Article 19 of the United Nations' Universal Declaration of Human Rights: Everyone has the right to freedom of opinion and expression; this right includes freedom to hold opinions without interference and to seek, receive and impart information and ideas through any media and regardless of frontiers.
This publication (written, audio and video) represents the commentary and/or criticism from Mike Stathis or another individual affiliated with Mike Stathis or AVA Investment Analytics (referred to hereafter as the “author”). Therefore, it is only an opinion and thus should not be taken to be factual. There is always a possibility that the author has made one or more unintentional errors, misinterpreted information, and/or excluded information which might have altered the commentary and/or criticisms. Hence, you are advised to conduct your own independent investigation so that you can form your own conclusions. We encourage the public to contact us if we have made any errors in statements or assumptions. We also encourage the public to contact us if we have left out relevant information which might alter our conclusions. We cannot promise a response, but we will consider all valid information.
For investment funds and financial institutions seeking to improve their performance
Tap Into the Mind of One of the World's Leading Analysts and Traders, Mike Stathis