Jim Rogers (2011): "Farmers Will Be Driving Lamborghinis"; a 10-year Followup

Jim Rogers has been praised as a top "commodities expert" by countless media outlets for several years.

Indeed, Jim Rogers is a "legendary" investor according to the media.

Despite the fact that Rogers has served as one of the best contrarian indicators in the world for the better part of the past two decades, the media continues to claim he is an investment "legend" without accurately discussing his track record. 

This represents fraud.

In addition, I have never seen any concrete evidence that Jim Rogers is even a decent investor. 

In fact, I've only seen evidence that indicates he's a terrible investor. 

Premise: Jim Rogers is an investment "legend" because he was involved with George Soros' Quantum fund, which allegedly returned 4200 percent in less than ten years.

But I argue that this is not evidence that he is a great investor.

In brief, here are the reasons:

1. Jim Rogers was not the sole or even main fund manager.

He was a contributor of the fund, but we do not know precisely what his contributions were, or to what extent his contributions were responsible for the performance of the fund.

2. We do not really know with any certainty what the true returns of the fund were unless the fund provided third-party audited performance data (it may have, but I have not seen this data). 

3. Even if the fund performance is valid, we do not know to what extent (if any) insider trading was involved.

Keep in mind that George Soros has been found guilty of insider trading in the past. I have reason to believe that he has been involved in insider trading for a very long time. And even Soros has stated that Rogers is not such a good investor. 

4. Even if we assume Rogers was a significant contributor to the fund's performance, it only means he was able to perform well when he was involved with other individuals. But this does not necessarily mean he would perform well as an individual investor for a variety of reasons.

We could settle this matter quickly if Rogers were to disclose his performance since (at least) 2000.

You can imagine why he won't do that. 

It's the same reason why Donald Trump refuses to release his tax data. He doesn't to crush the perception people have of him as this "great"  businessman. 

Carnival barkers like Trump, Rogers, etc. live off of the false perception that's been created by the media. This is how these clowns make the majority of their money. It's all marketing and perception.

Once you get past the smoke and mirrors, there's not much substance there. 

5. Outstanding performance for hedge funds was not difficult during the period for which Rogers was working for various reasons.

You should also note that during this period Warren Buffett delivered among his best performance. Since 2005, Buffett's performance has not been impressive because it's much harder today to outperform as a fund manager (unless you're engaged in securities fraud which is quite common) especially if you admit that you do not understand technology, as is the case with Buffett. 

6. Even if we assume the following: the 4200 percent performance of the Quantum fund is valid and earned legally; Rogers was a significant contributor to the fund's performance; Rogers' own investment performance since 2000 has been impressive; there is still one lingering question that remains unanswered. 

Why has Jim Rogers been wrong about nearly everything that has come out of his mouth over the past 15+ years?  

This relentless praise for Rogers as an investment "legend" has spread around the world to countries where the population is not taught about critical thinking such as in Asia. So media firms in these countries are incapable of understanding the need to check Roger's track record in order to confirm the claims made by U.S. media. Thus, they never look into his track record prior to featuring him as an investment expert similar to the crooked media in the U.S. 

Like most of the world, Asian nations are quite trusting of the U.S. establishment. These nations believe that if the U.S. media says it, then it must be true, further reducing any impetus to check any of the claims made by U.S. media. So if the U.S. media claims that Jim Rogers is a "legendary" or "great" investor, Asian media oragnizations will believe it. 

The same basic mechanism has worked well with other con artists such as Tony Robbins and Robert Kiyosaki who have spread their reach into developing nations with no resistance.

This reliance on the U.S. by most of the world is quite dangerous. We are being reminded of this now with the U.S.-led coronavirus hysteria.

Jim Rogers has benefited handsomely from this system of deceit from the media. It enables him to avoid all scrutiny. As a consequence, he is able to sell millions of completely useless books, command six-figure fees for speaking events, and rake in untold amounts of money for serving on the boards of shady companies in Russia and China.

On rare occasion when the media mentions Rogers' prior predictions, the interviewer lies about his track record or cherry picks something he said in the past in order to make it appear that he was correct. 

With that in mind, let's take a look at a statement made by Rogers ten years ago.

Right at the peak of the commodities bubble (which I predicted would burst in 2011) Rogers claimed that "Farmers will be driving Lamborghinis" to highlight his prediction that agricultural commodities would continue to soar in pricing. 

Rogers was not alone with these foolish claims.

The entire syndicate of fear-mongering, gold-pumping charlatans (Peter Schiff, Mike Maloney, Doug Casey, Chris Martenson; the list is endless) were also claiming that commodity prices would continue to soar due to "excessive money printing leading to hyperinflation." 

As you might imagine, constant reinforcement of these views by an army of charlatans serves to strengthen the claim that commodity prices were going to continue to rise for years to come, thereby strengthening the "sheep effect." The same machanism was also used by this gang to manipulate gold and silver prices. 

Despite the fact that we have never seen any concrete evidence of Rogers' investment "genius," most people believe he is a great investor because they believe the claims made by CNBC, Bloomberg, Barron's, Wall Street Journal, and the rest of the Jewish-run media.

After all, why would the media lie about something like this, right?

If you do not understand why the media promotes its guests as "experts" even though the majority are actually losers and con artists, then you need to read more of my articles. I have been exposing this media scam for more than a decade.

When one media firm makes a claim, others assume it's correct. This has a trickle down effect such that smaller, less known media firms assume Rogers is a great investor.

Eventually, just about every naive and/or clueless person becomes conditioned to think that Jim Rogers is a legendary investor.

The small minority who realize this is not the case are intelligent investors who have studied his track record.  

But the vast majority of investors have been fooled by the media and its lies.

So imagine that this "legendary" investor appears on TV claiming how the United States is "doomed."

You’re not going to feel too good about investing in the U.S. stock market, are you?  

This “legendary” investor also claims that price of agriculture and other commodities are poised to soar to such an extent that "Farmers will be driving Lamborghinis."  

What would you do?

You’d probably sell at least a good portion of your U.S. stocks since according to this "legendary" investor, the U.S. is in "deep trouble." 

You would also buy agricultural and other commodities since this same "legend" thinks farmers are going to strike it rich due to soaring agriculture prices.

The main problem is that these claims are ridiculous.

But because the media has led you to believe that the claims are from an investment "legend" you're going to believe them. 

As you look into ways to get exposure into commodities, you learn that you need to open an account with a commodities broker. Moreover, you will need to constantly trade futures contracts in order to maintain exposure in commodities.

Most people won't have the time to do this or won't be able to figure out how to do this.

Others won't want to do it. Most who try to do it will end up losing big.

But you also find out that the only way to gain exposure to commodities without trading futures contracts constantly is to buy commodities via ETFs.

Voila!

Wouldn't you know, Jim Rogers has his name on several commodities ETFs you can buy.

I could argue it’s fraud to have Rogers’ name on these ETFs without clear disclosure that he's not involved in fund management.

I’m sure there are disclaimers in the fine print of the prospectus. So it’s all “legal” thanks to the parasites running the SEC, CFTC, NFA, FINRA and other securities regulatory agencies.  

Rogers is being paid by the fund company for the "right" to use his name on these ETFs because the shady company that runs these ETFs (Elements) wants to exploit Rogers’ media celebrity status, knowing that most people are naïve and trusting, so they will line up to buy shares in these ETFs because they think Rogers is a “legendary” investor.

Think about it.

The media creates a false picture about Rogers by claiming he's an investing "legend." But the media never discusses his terrible investment track record which is quite extensive based on all of the interviews he's given over the past 20 years.

Next, a fund company wanting to lure suckers pays Rogers for use of his name on its commodities ETFs.

The fund company knows Rogers has been hyped up despite being wrong most of the time. But it wants to lure more investors into its funds, so it pays for this exposure.

What's happened is that the buck has been passed. The media created the fraud, but neither Rogers nor the fund company bear any responsibility for the deception. There is no accountability.

This illustrates just one or many reasons why the media needs to be liable for what it publishes.

As well, I believe all media firms which report on investments and finance that have soft dollar arrangements (including advertisement-based content) should be required to register as a broker-dealer in order to be held to a higher level of compliance and accountibility. This is a view I first discussed with SEC attorneys after the 2008 financial crisis. 

So what happened since Jim Rogers made this absurd claim about commodity prices soaring and farmers driving Lambos on March 2011? 

Take a look at the ETFs which pay to use his name.

As you might have guessed, they have been complete flops.

In contrast, the S&P 500 Index has soared.   

It would appear from the performance of the ETFs bearing Jim Rogers name that farmers are now riding bicycles. 

But there's a bit more to this analysis. 

Rogers has repeatedly stated that he does not understand technical analysis.

He has also stated many times that he cannot trade well.

Instead of a trader, he claims to be a long-term investor.

Okay. That sounds prudent. 

What’s remarkable about his confessions are that commodities have been structured specifically for trading because you can only buy and sell them using futures contracts.

Most futures contracts have short durations. Therefore, the only way you can invest in securities linked to futures contracts is to keep buying new contracts as the old contracts expire.

This is the only way you can maintain a long-term position in commodities.

So if you want to have long-term exposure in commodities, you need to purchase new futures contracts over and over.

That means your transaction costs will add up huge over time.

One of the most important rules of investing is to keep your fees low. This is especially true for long-term investors.

If you are paying high fees you are doing a good deal of damage to your returns.

Therefore, even if you could consider maintaining long-term positions in commodities as an investment (which it's not) one could argue that (assuming the risks involved with commodities trading were not high even though they are) the high fees involved in doing so make it prohibitive to qualify a prudent investment. 

Furthermore, the process of trading any market-based security is heavily reliant on a good understanding of technical analysis. This is especially true for commodities since pricing is driven by short-term events.

An even bigger problem which Rogers has never explained is how one can invest in securities which are considered speculative. You are either investing or speculating.

According to securities regulators, buying, selling, selling short, or holding speculative securities is considered a form of gambling. That's not investing. 

The bottom line is that it is absolutely impossible to “invest” in commodities.

You can speculate with commodities. But there is no such thing as "investing" in commodities because commodities are expressed in the securities market as futures contracts which have relatively short expiration periods. Hence, they are considered speculative  securities.  

It's important to note that commodity and foreign currency contracts were never intended for retail investors. They were created for the specific purpose of providing a way for multinational firms to hedge commodities and currency pricing. Later, institutional investors gained access to commodities and currencies, but they were used only as hedges.

Although commodities and FOREX trading opened up for the retail investment public a few decades ago, it didn't really take off until online trading became feasible. And once criminal media networks like CNBC began promoting this form of gambling, it grew rapidly. 

You can buy a commodities ETF, but they come with high transaction costs. A good deal of the total costs are not shown in the expense ratio (if you don’t understand how this is possible then you have much to learn). 

The bottom line is that Jim Rogers is indirectly swaying naïve people to buy the ETFs bearing his name without specifically mentioning them.

Remember, first he claims that he doesn’t understand technical analysis.

Next, he claims he does do well trading, so he invests long term.

So, if he does not understand technical analysis, and if he does not know how to trade well, how does he invest in commodities?

There is only one way.

He must be buying ETFs which (attempt to) mimic a commodities index.

Let me clear about something.

Jim Rogers is a dishonest huckster.

He is being paid to promote speculative investments (commodities, stocks in shady Russian and Chinese companies) while trashing the U.S. stock market.   

When Jim Rogers lines up for one of his broken clock interviews, does he mention that he licensed his name to a company (Elements) that runs agriculture and commodities ETFs?

Nope.

That means he is not disclosing how he stands to benefit financially from promoting (and mischaracterizing) commodities.

The same is true when he promotes Russia and China. 

You might be thinking that Rogers is being paid a fixed annual fee by Elements for use of his name, so he does not benefit by pumping commodities, right?

Wrong.

Elements is paying Rogers big bucks knowing that he will promote commodities as a great investment over and over, regardless how much commodity prices collapse.

And because most people do not want to trade commodities futures, they will only be able to gain commodities exposure through buying a commodities ETF.

If you're going to purchase a commodities ETF, it stands to reason that you'd want buy one that bears the name of an investment "legend."

This explains why Rogers keeps telling us how commodities are the place to be year after year despite collapsing in price.  

We don't even know whether Rogers is receiving shares of these ETFs as partial compensation. 

If he is, he would most likely be in violation of securities laws since I have never heard him disclose this (but again, this disclosure could be buried in the prospectus, thereby shielding these hucksters from liability).

Rogers has been playing this game for many years. Hence, Jim Rogers is steering people into trash while telling them to get out of the best investments. And he is profiting from this terrible advice.

At the end of the day, the media is to blame for this fraud because it broadcasts these trash segments promoting clowns like Rogers who have really bad track records. And the media markets these interviews as news and insight when in fact it's manipulation.

The U.S. media is absolutely a criminal organization (note that alternative media is much worse).

The media is committing fraud by deceiving its audience when it promotes Rogers along with the other army of con artists and broken clocks as experts.

Remember that all ad-based content is a complete scam.

And nearly all content you see and read today is either low yield (and hence of waste of your precious time) or else fake news garbage. 

Subscribers to our research are aware of the fact that I declared that the commodities bubble was poised to burst right around the same time as Rogers was talking about farmers and Lambos.

Ask yourself who was right.

Then ask yourself who remains banned and who remains featured as an investment legend. 

You can read more on how Jim Rogers really makes his money from this recently published article: Nobody in His Right Mind Would Listen to Jim Rogers

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