• The World's Leading Investment Mind Has Been   

    BANNED BY ALL MEDIA

  • Mike Stathis is the best financial analyst in the world. He is also the most widely banned financial expert in U.S. history. Learn why.

  • ALL MEDIA is controlled by the JEWISH MAFIA, which engages in Massive Fraud

  • The Media Doesn't Want You to Know the Truth 

  • Advertisers Control ALL Media Content

  • The Media's Goal is to Promote Clowns as Experts

    The Media Works With Wall Street to Rip You Off

  • Find Out What the Wall Street and Media Cabal Don't Want You to Know. Learn how to beat them at their own game.

  • AVA Investment Analytics Provides Research from

    the Best Investment Forecaster in the World

  • Stathis holds the Best Forecasting Track Record Since 2006.       

    Check his track record [1][2][3][4][5][6

  • Mike Stathis is neither a perma-bear nor perma-bull. He is a real investment analyst.  Perma-bears and perma-bulls are NOT credible.

  • Mike's ability to see what others cannot has enabled those who have had access to his research to make tremendous amounts of money 

  • Mike's rise as the World's Greatest Analyst began during his early years working on Wall Street

  • Today, he publishes investment research far superior to anything coming out of Wall Street

  • Skeptical?  Check His Track Record Yourself [1][2][3][4][5][6]

  • Don't Rely on Clowns and Disinformation. If you are not able to think for yourself you will always be a slave to scam artists.   

  • If You Keep Listening to the Media, You Will Keep Losing Money

  • AVA Investment Analytics is World's Best Source of

    Investment Research & Investor Education 

  • Mike Stathis' advice and research have been utilized by multi-billion dollar mutual funds, hedge funds & pension plans

  • AVA Investment Analytics is the World's Best investment research firm. Mike Stathis serves as the firm's chief investment strategist

Alerts

Opening Statement from the January 2021 CCPM Forecaster

Opening Statement from the January 2021 CCPM Forecaster

Originally published on January 3, 2021 

 

Overview

Despite suffering from one of the most severe recessions in history, the global macroeconomic outlook has continued to improve ever since the summer of 2020. Assuming a reasonable rollout of several coronavirus vaccines by summer 2021, we expect demand for commodities to continue to pick up as economies head closer to normal conditions.

While the overwhelming consensus of economists and analysts expected a so-called “V-shaped” recovery, early on we emphasized that a recovery would take much longer than expected. Signs of recovery from the COVID-19 recession only began to materialize by Q3 2020.

Despite overwhelming optimism as expressed by investors, a full economic recovery has a long way to go and will be accompanied by many significant risks. Even the IMF has only recently admitted that 2021 will only provide a partial recovery from the COVID-19 recession which officially began in February 2020.

Interest Rates and Commodity Prices

On September 16, 2020, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated the Fed’s intention to keep short-term interest rates at current levels (near 0 percent) until (at least) the end of 2023.

The Fed’s expectations for interest rates rely largely on its estimates for inflation. Accordingly, Powell stated that inflation is not likely to meet the Fed’s target of 2 percent until the end of 2023. Powell also reminded investors that the Fed plans to allow inflation to moderately exceed the Fed’s target in order to compensate for prior periods of low inflation.

USD

We believe the USD will remain weak at least through the first few months of 2021. Whether or not the dollar enters a recovery in the second half of 2021 will depend on several factors.

Oil

After entering a bearish trend in March 2020, continued weakness in the USD helped to put a bottom in oil prices after collapsing to multi-decade lows. As you will recall, on April 20, 2020 the May 2020 WTI crude oil futures contracts collapsed to -$40. 

Although oil demand is expected to firm up from 2020, pricing remains largely under the control of OPEC. As you might recall, in July 2020 after economic lockdowns caused oil pricing to collapse, OPEC agreed to cut oil output to lows not seen since 1991.

Prior to the latest wave of COVID-19 outbreaks, members of the OPEC+ alliance planned to reduce daily production cuts from 7.7 mbpd to 5.8 mbpd. But by early December 2020, despite positive news regarding coronavirus vaccines, members of the OPEC+ alliance tentatively agreed to reduce daily production cuts by only 500,000 bpd, or from 7.7 mbpd to 7.2 mbpd moving into 2021. These agreements are expected to be finalized when members meet on January 4...

This article continues.

To continue viewing this entry please sign in to your Client or Member account.

Commodities, Currencies & Precious Metals Forecaster (released on the 1st Sunday of each month*)
                                                                                                         
                                                                                                          (click on the box below for more information)
    For details about this publication please click here.
    *Unless otherwise specified. 
     Our research publications track record may be examined here
Print article

Restrictions Against Reproduction: No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without the prior written permission of the copyright owner and the Publisher.

These articles and commentaries cannot be reposted or used in any publications for which there is any revenue generated directly or indirectly. These articles cannot be used to enhance the viewer appeal of any website, including any ad revenue on the website, other than those sites for which specific written permission has been granted. Any such violations are unlawful and violators will be prosecuted in accordance with these laws.

Article 19 of the United Nations' Universal Declaration of Human Rights: Everyone has the right to freedom of opinion and expression; this right includes freedom to hold opinions without interference and to seek, receive and impart information and ideas through any media and regardless of frontiers.

This publication (written, audio and video) represents the commentary and/or criticism from Mike Stathis or another individual affiliated with Mike Stathis or AVA Investment Analytics (referred to hereafter as the “author”). Therefore, it is only an opinion and thus should not be taken to be factual. There is always a possibility that the author has made one or more unintentional errors, misinterpreted information, and/or excluded information which might have altered the commentary and/or criticisms. Hence, you are advised to conduct your own independent investigation so that you can form your own conclusions. We encourage the public to contact us if we have made any errors in statements or assumptions. We also encourage the public to contact us if we have left out relevant information which might alter our conclusions. We cannot promise a response, but we will consider all valid information.


0:00
0:00